Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

THE QUARTER IN BRIEF
The economy seemed to hit a soft patch this summer, but stocks carried onward and upward – the S&P 500 advanced for a fourth straight quarter in Q3, rising 3.31%. Markets were notably placid for much of the quarter, even with two major banking scandals, multiple terror attacks, and the latest dispatches from an especially contentious presidential race in the headlines. As Q3 went on, the Federal Reserve all but signaled to investors to expect a rate hike before the end of the year. Home sales, residential construction, factory activity, and consumer spending seemed to wane in the quarter, but consumers grew more confident.¹

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
As Wall Street mulled over the chances of a fall interest rate increase, some economic indicators pointed to a summer slowdown. In August, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index went under 50 (49.4), meaning the sector had contracted for the month. Both industrial and manufacturing production declined 0.4%. Durable goods orders, up 3.6% for July, were suddenly flat. Retail sales fell off by 0.3%, and personal spending was flat after an 0.4% gain in July (personal incomes did manage to rise another 0.2%).^2,3

 

The pace of hiring also moderated in August, though July’s number was revised upward in September. Employers added 275,000 new jobs in July, 151,000 for August. The headline jobless rate (4.9%), the U-6 rate counting the underemployed and the unemployed (9.7%), and the labor force participation rate (62.8%) were exactly the same in both months.⁴

 

Other indicators were less dismal. As September ended, the federal government said the economy grew at a 1.4% pace in Q2 – not very good, but better than the 1.1% growth previously estimated. Additionally, ISM’s service sector PMI remained above 50 in August at 51.4 (though that number was decidedly lower than the 55.5 mark from July).^3,5

 

Accentuating the positive, consumers grew more upbeat as the quarter went on. In July, the Conference Board announced a reading of 97.3 for its consumer confidence index; in August, the CB said the gauge was at 101.1, and in September it reached 104.1. Across the quarter, the University of Michigan’s monthly measure of household sentiment rose slightly from 90.0 in July to 91.2 for September (including a dip to 89.8 for August).^6,7

 

Consumer inflation picked up, but wholesale inflation did not. By August, the Consumer Price Index had advanced 1.1% in a year, as opposed to 0.8% in the 12 months ending in July. Core consumer prices were up 2.3% year-over-year by August. In annualized terms, the Producer Price Index showed no change from a year earlier in August; in monthly terms, the PPI fell 0.4% in July and was flat a month later. Core inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.1% in July, 0.2% in August.^2,3

 

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, it left interest rates alone during Q3. It did, however, clue Wall Street in on the probability of a Q4 rate hike: its latest dot-plot forecast showed consensus for one, and the vote against raising the federal funds rate at its September policy meeting was close (7-3). After the vote was announced, Fed chair Janet Yellen remarked that FOMC members were “generally pleased with how the U.S. economy is doing” – a notably sunny viewpoint. On September 29, she made further headlines by commenting how useful it would be if the Fed could buy securities and corporate bonds to stimulate the economy in a recession (something it is currently prohibited from doing).^8,9

Wells Fargo certainly made headlines in Q3. In September, its CEO was brought before Congress after news broke that employees had opened as many as 2 million fake accounts in pursuit of sales goals. The bank was contending with $190 million in fines and severe damage to its reputation when the quarter ended.¹⁰

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Trouble at another, even larger banking giant emerged during Q3. Deutsche Bank looked increasingly shaky after failing the U.S. government’s bank stress test early this summer and barely passing the equivalent test in the European Union. S&P Global Ratings lowered its outlook for DB to negative. By the end of the quarter, CNBC and AFP were reporting that DB was trying to negotiate $14 billion in fines it owed to the Department of Justice down to the $5 billion level; indications were that the German government had no intention to bail the bank out should its situation worsen.^1,11

 

Economic indicators pointed at a less stagnant E.U. economy during the summer after the Brexit. Eurostat projected 0.4% consumer inflation in September, rising from 0.2% in August; the euro area jobless rate stayed at 10.1% in both July and August, the lowest level observed since July 2011.¹²

 

In September, OPEC nations agreed to reduce oil production for the first time since 2008. The agreement, to be finalized in fall, would essentially restore the production limits that were in place back in 2015. Previously, Saudi Arabia had held out on such an agreement, saying it would cut production only if all other OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing nations vowed to do so.¹³

 

WORLD MARKETS
Benchmarks generally climbed higher in the third quarter, affirming that 2016 has turned into a good year for stocks. By the end of Q3, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 13.82% year-over-year, and Germany’s DAX had seen an 8.80% 12-month advance. Other impressive year-over-year gains: 20.39% for Russia’s Micex, 11.76% for the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, 28.81% for Brazil’s Bovespa, 14.07% for the MSCI Emerging Markets index, and 10.66% for the TSX Composite in Canada. The MSCI World index had risen 9.09% in 12 months; India’s Sensex, 6.54%.^14,15

 

The past four quarters had not been so kind to some other indices. As the third quarter ended, Italy’s FTSE All-Share had lost 21.06% in a year; Spain’s IBEX 35, 8.16%; France’s CAC-40, just 0.16%; China’s Shanghai Composite, 1.55%; and Japan’s Nikkei 225, 5.40%.¹⁴

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS
Precious metals remained on track to log an impressive 2016 comeback. Gold lost just 0.3% in the quarter, which still left it up 24.2% YTD. The yellow metal closed the quarter at $1,317.10 on the COMEX. Silver wrapped up September at $19.21, rising 3.2% in the quarter and gaining 39.2% through three-fourths of 2016. Platinum advanced 1.0% in Q3; palladium, 20.8%. That brought their respective YTD gains to 15.8% and 28.4%.¹⁶

 

Looking at the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the best Q3 performers were two base metals – zinc rose 12.6% in the quarter; nickel, 11.5%. Sugar advanced 9.8%; cotton, 5.3%; and soybean oil, 4.6%. The worst performers? Lean hogs lost 31.6%; soy meal, 25.1%; soybeans, 17.1%; and wheat, 14.0%. The U.S. Dollar Index retreated but 0.57% for the quarter, finishing Q3 at 95.42.^17,18

 

Like gold, WTI crude was nearly flat for the quarter. Futures lost just 0.2% in Q3, finishing September at a NYMEX price of $48.24. Heating oil rose 2.9% in Q3, while unleaded gasoline retreated 0.9%.^1,19

 

REAL ESTATE
Home sales and housing starts tapered off during the quarter. Existing home sales slipped 3.4% in July and another 0.9% in August as inventory slimmed; the National Association of Realtors also said pending home sales were up 1.2% in July, but down 2.4% a month later. In July, the Census Bureau announced that new home sales were up a whopping 13.8% and near an all-time peak, but then they fell 7.6% in August. Housing starts were up 1.4% for July; building permits, down 0.8%. In August, permits were down another 0.4%, with groundbreaking reduced by 5.8%. The year-over-year advance in the monthly editions of the 20-city Case-Shiller home price index kept shrinking – it was 5.1% in June, 5.0% in July.^2,3

 

Home loans, broadly speaking, grew slightly less expensive across Q3. The September 29 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey specified the following average interest on the three common mortgage types: 30-year FRM, 3.42%; 15-year FRM, 2.72%; 5/1-year ARM, 2.81%. Compare those numbers with these from the June 30 PMMS: 30-year FRM, 3.48%; 15-year FRM, 2.78%; 5/1-year ARM, 2.70%.²⁰

 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
Tech shares and small caps set the pace in the third quarter – the Nasdaq Composite leapt 9.69%, while the Russell 2000 posted a 3-month gain of 8.20%.^1,21

 

The Dow ended the quarter at 18,308.15; the NASDAQ, at 5,312.00; the S&P 500, at 2,168.27; and the RUT, at 1,251.64. The RUT’s YTD mark at the end of Q3 (+10.19%) surpassed the YTD performances of the big three.²²

 

Concluding the quarter at 13.29, the CBOE VIX retreated swiftly this summer. Its Q3 loss was 10.02%, leaving the “fear index” down 27.02% YTD.²³

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	Q3 CHG	1-YR CHG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+5.07	+2.11	+12.43	+5.68
NASDAQ	+6.08	+9.69	+14.97	+13.52
S&P 500	+6.08	+3.31	+12.93	+6.23
REAL YIELD	9/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.00%	0.65%	0.17%	2.27%

 

---

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/30/16^1,22,24,25

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

This is the time of year when bulls yearn for an extended rally. Will they get it? Will S&P 500 earnings surpass (low) expectations? Will the market confidently ride through the election, whatever the outcome? Will it simply and calmly price in a rate hike, assuming that happens? Will investors shrug off any unsettling headlines, whether from home or from overseas? If the market can answer “yes” to those last four questions, the quarter could see impressive gains for the major indices. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence research, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 5% in the fourth quarter since 1990, and advanced in the fourth quarter more than 70% of the time since 1945. The past has little or no influence upon future market behaviors, but even with continued slow economic growth, the overall market mood is still bullish – so perhaps investors will look at earnings first this quarter, then other factors. It is sure to be an eventful and possibly turbulent three months.²⁶

«RepresentativeDisclosure»

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The MICEX Index is a cap-weighted composite index calculated based on prices of the 50 most liquid Russian stocks of the largest and dynamically developing Russian issuers presented on the Moscow Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986. The FTSE Italia All-Share Index is a free float capitalization weighted index that comprises all of the constituents in the FTSE MIB, FTSE Italia Mid Cap and FTSE Italia Small Cap indices. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain's principal stock exchange. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2016/09/30/us-markets.html [9/30/16]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/30/16]

3 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/30/16]

4 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/09/02/tepid-august-jobs-report-lack-wage-growth-muddies-rate-hike-picture.html [9/2/16]

5 – tinyurl.com/zho9nnp [9/6/16]

6 – investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48 [10/3/16]

7 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence [10/3/16]

8 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-federal-reserve-meeting-20160921-snap-story.html [9/21/16]

9 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-purchases-idUSKCN11Z2WI [9/29/16]

10 – reuters.com/article/us-wells-fargo-accounts-idUSKCN11X2NW [9/28/16]

11 – cnbc.com/2016/09/28/deutsche-bank-crisis-explained.html [9/28/16]

12 – ec.europa.eu/eurostat# [10/4/16]

13 – reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN11Y18K [9/29/16]

14 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [9/30/16]

15 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [9/30/16]

16 – coinnews.net/2016/10/01/gold-silver-mixed-in-3rd-quarter-us-mint-coin-sales-strengthen/ [10/1/16]

17 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-02/too-many-fat-pigs-are-making-hogs-the-biggest-commodities-loser [10/2/16]

18 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [10/3/16]

19 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-continue-to-fall-as-doubts-over-opec-agreement-build-2016-09-30/ [9/30/16]

20 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016 [10/3/16]

21 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/ [9/30/16]

22 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/30/16]

23 – money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=VIX [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

25 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/3/16]

26 – cbsnews.com/news/time-to-make-some-fourth-quarter-investing-bets/ [9/30/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
Investors had plenty of news to absorb in September: the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve, the Wells Fargo fiasco and the crisis involving Deutsche Bank, and a major deal forged between OPEC member nations. Add in the presidential race and a raft of economic data, and you had all the ingredients for market turbulence. Wall Street saw much of that last month. Yet, at the close on September 30, the S&P 500 was little changed from the end of August – the index was just 0.12% lower. The latest housing indicators showed fewer home sales and less groundbreaking; hiring tapered off, and news came that the manufacturing sector had abruptly contracted. Even so, consumer confidence strengthened.¹

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
Would the Federal Reserve raise the key interest rate in September? As it turned out, no. The Fed elected to postpone a rate hike, a decision in line with market expectations. The 7-3 vote was, however, unusually close, and the latest Fed dot-plot indicated consensus for a rate increase before the end of the year. At the press conference following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement, Fed chair Janet Yellen noted that the FOMC is “generally pleased with how [the] economy is doing.”²

 

Main Street seemed to share that feeling as well. Both of the key consumer confidence polls ended September higher. The University of Michigan index went from 89.8 at the end of August to a final September mark of 91.2, while the Conference Board’s gauge went north 3.0 points to a very strong reading of 104.1.^3,4

 

These numbers may hint at stronger personal spending. The Department of Commerce’s September report on that subject will arrive late this month; the August data left something to be desired. Personal spending was flat in the eighth month of the year even as personal incomes rose 0.2%. August retail sales fell 0.3%, with the retreat at 0.1% minus gasoline and auto purchases. August brought a 0.2% advance for the Consumer Price Index, with core prices rising 0.3%; in annualized terms, America had experienced 2.3% core consumer inflation in the past 12 months.^3,4

 

The August jobs report from the Department of Labor looked pretty mediocre: the net job gain was 151,000. As unimpressive as this was, the 3-month moving average for job growth was much better at 232,000. Year-over-year wage growth came in at 2.4% in August, as opposed to 2.7% a month earlier. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9%; the U-6 rate including the underemployed stayed at 9.7%.⁵

 

In late September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis closed the book on Q3 GDP. The final number (which actually could still be revised years from now): 1.4%.³

 

At the start of September, an Institute for Supply Management report showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector had suddenly contracted. ISM’s factory purchasing manager index came in at just 49.4 in August, a startling drop from the 52.6 mark recorded for July. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI also plunged: the service sector grew in August at its slowest pace in more than six years as the index slipped from 55.5 to 51.4. Wholesale prices – as measured by the Producer Price Index – were not only flat for August, but flat year-over-year. Headline hard goods orders were also unchanged in August.^4,6

 

A long-brewing scandal at one of the nation’s major financial institutions came to a head. Wells Fargo agreed to pay $190 million in fines to regulators as punishment for its employees creating as many as 2 million phony credit card and deposit accounts. The bank announced it would pare its payrolls of 5,300 workers as a result of the scandal, which was linked to employees trying to meet sales goals. Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf was summoned to the nation’s capital for a grilling before the House Financial Services Committee and faced public pressure to resign.⁷

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Wells Fargo wasn’t the only financial giant in hot water in September: some investors wondered if Deutsche Bank was at risk of becoming the next Lehman Brothers. This summer, its U.S. unit failed the Federal Reserve’s banking stress test (again), and barely passed a similar test in Europe; S&P Global Ratings changed its outlook for Deutsche Bank to negative. In June, the International Monetary Fund identified it as “the most important net contributor to systemic risks in the global banking system.” Meanwhile, the bank is scheduled to pay out $14 billion in fines to the Department of Justice for misconduct (Fitch thinks the figure could eventually be reduced to the vicinity of $5 billion). As CNBC notes, reports have surfaced that Germany’s government is not willing to bail out Deutsche Bank in a worst-case scenario.⁸

 

For the first time since 2008, OPEC member countries agreed to cut oil production. The deal was announced September 29, and the news immediately took the price of WTI crude above the $48 level. The pact ended a long stalemate between Iran and Saudi Arabia that had held up prior attempts to curb output. This accord will essentially put the OPEC daily production limits of a year ago back in place, and it could be extended in November to include non-member nations such as Russia.⁹

 

WORLD MARKETS
As many global benchmarks seemed to advance as retreat in September. Argentina’s ever-turbulent MERVAL index took the biggest leap up, gaining 5.94%. Smaller gains came for the Hang Seng (1.22%), the FTSE 100 (1.15%), the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (1.09%), the IBEX 35 (1.08%), the MSCI World Index (0.36%), the TSX Composite (0.28%), the Bovespa (0.22%), and the KOSPI (0.19%).^10,11

 

Some September losses were major. The Shanghai Composite drifted down 2.25%; the Sensex, 1.68%; and the Nikkei 225, 1.65%. The DAX fell 1.38% on the month. Other key indices kept their losses under 1%, such as Australia’s All Ordinaries (0.87%), Mexico’s Bolsa (0.67%), and France’s CAC-40 (0.21%).¹⁰

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Overall, September was a very positive month for commodity futures. Gold settled at $1,318.80 on the COMEX on September 30; silver, at $19.24. Gold rose 0.70% for the month; silver, 2.87%. Copper futures jumped 6.40%, but platinum futures sank 2.76%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.59%.^12,13

 

Among energy futures, heating oil jumped 8.71% as fall approached; natural gas rose 0.80%. Oil ended September at $48.05 on the NYMEX, up 7.11% for the month; unleaded gasoline advanced 3.04%. As for crops, corn gained 11.03%; wheat, 10.82%; and sugar, 12.15%. Coffee advanced 4.31% in September; cotton, 4.23%. Cocoa futures fell 4.83%, and soybean futures gave back 0.42%.¹²

 

REAL ESTATE
Slim inventory weighed on home sales. The National Association of Realtors said that resales retreated 0.9% for August, and there was also a 2.4% dip in pending sales. New home buying, according to the Census Bureau, fell 7.6% a month after reaching a peak unseen since October 2007 in July.^3,14

 

Housing starts and building permits both declined in August – the former indicator was down 5.8%; the latter, 0.4%. The latest Case-Shiller home price index also retreated a bit; the July edition showed a 5.0% overall annual advance in the 20-city composite index, down from 5.1% in June.^3,4

 

Many economists foresee an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before 2016 ends, but that presumption did not pressure mortgage rates in September. Eyeing Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Surveys, the average interest rate for the 30-year FRM was 3.46% on September 1, and 3.42% on September 29. Average interest on the 15-year FRM declined from 2.77% to 2.72% in that span; rates for 5/1-year ARMs averaged 2.83% on September 1 and 2.81% on September 29.¹⁵

 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
The Nasdaq Composite had a fine September, rising 1.70% to finish the month at 5,312.00. Like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went red in September, losing 0.79%. The S&P ended the month at 2,168.27 thanks to its 0.12% loss; the Dow, at 18,308.15. While this is shaping up to be a decent year for all three of those benchmarks, their performance so far pales next to that of the PHLX Gold/Silver Index, which closed September up at a phenomenal 107.53% YTD.^1,16

 

In addition to the YTD numbers for the big three below, there are two others certainly worth noting – the Russell 2000 ended September at +10.19% on the year; the CBOE VIX, at -27.02%.¹⁶

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+5.07	+12.43	+13.55	+5.68
NASDAQ	+6.08	+14.97	+23.98	+13.52
S&P 500	+6.08	+12.93	+18.33	+6.23
REAL YIELD	9/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.00%	0.65%	0.17%	2.27%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/30/16^16,17,18,19

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

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October shapes up as a busy month with another earnings season getting underway, and investors awaiting both the presidential election and an FOMC meeting in early November. In short, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the air, perhaps enough to hold stocks back in the next few weeks. Could this earnings season surpass expectations? Analysts certainly aren’t expecting much. (For that matter, FactSet data has S&P 500 earnings down an average of 2.1% so far for Q3; Q3 would mark the sixth straight quarter with a year-over-year earnings decline.) Even so, October may surprise us: for all the stock market dramas associated, historically, with the month, the fact is that the S&P 500 has performed better in October than in any other month over the past 20 years. Its average October gain in that time frame: 2.1%. History does not easily repeat, but bulls can draw some encouragement from that statistic as October unfolds.²⁰

 

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: The roll call for the balance of October is as follows: the ISM service sector PMI, ADP’s September employment change report and August factory orders (10/5), the September Challenger job-cut numbers (10/6), the September jobs report from the Department of Labor (10/7), the minutes from September’s FOMC meeting (10/12), the September PPI, September retail sales and the preliminary October consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (10/14), September industrial output (10/17), the September CPI (10/18), September housing starts and building permits and a new Federal Reserve Beige Book (10/19), September existing home sales (10/20), the August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and a fresh consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (10/25), September new home sales (10/26), September capital goods orders and pending home sales (10/27), the initial estimate of Q3 GDP and the month’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (10/28), and then the September consumer spending report and September PCE prices (10/31). The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for November 2.

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain's principal stock exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The All Ordinaries (XAO) is considered a total market barometer for the Australian stock market and contains the 500 largest ASX-listed companies by way of market capitalization. The Mexican Stock Exchange commonly known as Mexican Bolsa, Mexbol, or BMV, is the only stock exchange in Mexico. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of companies involved in the gold or silver mining industry. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [9/30/16]

2 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-federal-reserve-meeting-20160921-snap-story.html [9/21/16]

3 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/30/16]

4 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/30/16]

5 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/09/02/tepid-august-jobs-report-lack-wage-growth-muddies-rate-hike-picture.html [9/2/16]

6 – tinyurl.com/zho9nnp [9/6/16]

7 – reuters.com/article/us-wells-fargo-accounts-idUSKCN11X2NW [9/28/16]

8 – cnbc.com/2016/09/28/deutsche-bank-crisis-explained.html [9/28/16]

9 – reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN11Y18K [9/29/16]

10 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [9/30/16]

11 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [9/30/16]

12 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [9/30/16]

13 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [10/2/16]

14 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-new-home-sales-20160926-snap-story.html [9/26/16]

15 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016l [10/2/16]

16 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

18 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/30/16]

19 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/30/16]

20 – marketwatch.com/story/volatile-mix-of-data-politics-and-bank-woes-to-converge-in-stock-market-2016-10-01/ [10/1/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

RETAIL SALES JUMP 0.6%

This September gain was impressive – minus auto sales, the advance was still 0.5%. In August, both headline and core retail sales fell 0.2%. While consumers bought more last month, they were less confident earlier this month – the University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment index fell 3.3 points to 87.9.¹

  

INTEREST RATES MAY SOON RISE

The minutes from September’s Federal Reserve policy meeting affirmed what some investors suspected. One, last month’s decision not to raise the federal funds rate was a “close call.” Two, the Federal Open Market Committee expects to make a move “relatively soon.” Last month, 74% of economists responding to a Wall Street Journal survey thought the central bank would raise rates in December.²

 

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX UP 0.3%

A 2.5% advance in energy prices became the biggest factor in September’s PPI gain. The headline PPI rose 0.7% in the 12 months ending in September.³

 

STOCKS PULL BACK AS EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS

During five choppy trading days last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.56% to 18,138.38; the S&P 500, 0.96% to 2,132.98; and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.48% to 5,214.16. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at 16.00 Friday, up 18.69% for the week.⁴

THIS WEEK: Monday, Wall Street looks at earnings from Bank of America, Celanese, Del Taco, Hasbro, IBM, J.B. Hunt, Lennox International, and Netflix, plus numbers on September industrial output. On Tuesday, BlackRock, Domino’s Pizza, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Philip Morris, Yahoo!, Regions Financial, UnitedHealth, and W.W. Grainger join the earnings parade, and the September CPI arrives. Abbott Labs, American Express, BB&T, Citrix, eBay, Mattel, Halliburton, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust, Seagate, St. Jude Medical, SuperValu, U.S. Bancorp, and United Rentals all report earnings Wednesday; investors will also consider September data on housing starts and building permits, and a new Federal Reserve Beige Book. Thursday offers earnings from Alaska Air, American Airlines, BoNY Mellon, Dunkin’ Brands, E*TRADE, Fifth Third, IMAX, Invacare, Microsoft, Nucor, PayPal, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Schlumberger, Union Pacific, Verizon, and Walgreens Boots Alliance; reports on initial jobless claims and September existing home sales also appear. Friday, the key earnings reports come from General Electric, Honeywell International, McDonalds, Parker Hannifin, SunTrust, and Whirlpool.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.09	+7.17	+11.15	+5.17
NASDAQ	+4.13	+9.02	+19.09	+12.12
S&P 500	+4.36	+6.96	+14.84	+5.62
REAL YIELD	10/14 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.13%	0.50%	0.28%	2.47%

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/14/16^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [10/14/16]

2 – tinyurl.com/hhanz42 [10/12/16]

3 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/10/14/september-producer-prices-rise-more-than-expected.html [10/14/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/14/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/14/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

Hiring picked up in the Third quarter

Employers added 156,000 net new jobs to their payrolls in September, the Department of Labor stated Friday. The August gain was revised up to 167,000, so monthly job growth averaged 192,000 in Q3, improved from 146,000 in Q2. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% in September; the U-6 underemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Yearly wage growth reached 2.6%, with the average hourly wage rising six cents to $25.79.^1,2

  

ISM INDICES SHOW A SEPTEMBER REBOUND

America’s manufacturing sector grew again last month; the Institute for Supply Management’s factory PMI improved to 51.5 in September, recovering from its recessionary August mark of 49.4. The Institute’s non-manufacturing PMI surged north 5.7 points last month, rising to 57.1.²

 

OIL & GOLD PRICES HEAD IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

On Friday, gold closed down at $1,251.90 on the COMEX, falling about 5% for the week. Light sweet crude advanced just over 3% last week, closing at $49.81 on the NYMEX Friday, even after a 1.3% loss during the trading week’s last session.³

 

STOCKS END THE WEEK SLIGHTLY LOWER

The numbers contained within Friday’s jobs report did not exactly spark a rally, so the S&P 500 settled at 2,153.74, losing 0.67% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both descended 0.37% across five trading days to respective Friday closes of 18,240.49 and 5,292.40.⁴

 

THIS WEEK: Monday is Columbus Day. Wall Street will be open for business, but federal government offices and banks will be closed. Tuesday, a new earnings season starts with results from Alcoa, Barracuda Networks, and Fastenal. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September monetary policy meeting, and CSX Corp. announces Q3 earnings. Thursday’s earnings parade includes results from Delta Air Lines, Winnebago, and Wynn Resorts; a new initial jobless claims report also arrives. Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday in Boston about the economic recovery; Wall Street will consider her comments, along with the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, September retail sales numbers, the September PPI, and earnings from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC, and Wells Fargo.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.68	+7.85	+12.86	+5.39
NASDAQ	+5.69	+10.46	+22.69	+13.01
S&P 500	+5.37	+7.91	+17.28	+5.96
REAL YIELD	10/7 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.10%	0.53%	0.16%	2.37%

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/7/16^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/10/07/september-jobs-report-the-numbers-2/ [10/7/16]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [10/7/16]

3 – investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-end-with-small-losses-job-growth-slows-honeywell-dives/ [10/7/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F7%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F7%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F7%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/7/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/7/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

NO ADVANCE IN CONSUMER SPENDING
Personal spending was flat in August even as personal incomes rose 0.2%. These numbers from the Department of Commerce fell short of expectations: economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.2% gain in both categories. In other news linked to consumer spending, the federal government revised second-quarter GDP up to 1.4% in its third estimate; it had previously put Q2 growth at 1.1%.¹

HOUSEHOLD CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
September brought a big jump in the Conference Board’s closely watched consumer confidence index, which rose 3.0 points to 104.1. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ended September at 91.2, up from 89.8 at the end of August; the main factor in that gain was an improved outlook among higher-income households.^1,2

NEW HOME SALES DIP 7.6%
This housing indicator tends to be very volatile, and this August retreat follows a 13.8% July advance. The median new home price was down 5.3% in August from a year earlier, the Census Bureau noted. Looking at other real estate data, the July edition of the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed a 5.0% annual increase in existing home values, ticking down from 5.1% in June; the National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales fell 2.4% in August.^1,3

MINOR GAINS IN A WEEK OF MAJOR UPS & DOWNS
The last week of September saw the three major U.S. equity indices advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26%; the S&P 500 gained 0.17%; and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.12%. The September 30 settlements: Dow, 18,308.15; S&P, 2,168.27; Nasdaq, 5,312.00.⁴

THIS WEEK: Monday offers ISM’s September manufacturing PMI and quarterly results from The Container Store. Tuesday, Wall Street considers earnings from Darden Restaurants and Micron Technology. On Wednesday, ISM releases its September service sector PMI; ADP issues its September payrolls report; data on August factory orders appears; and Constellation Brands, Monsanto, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. In addition to a new initial jobless claims report, Thursday brings the latest Challenger job-cut data and Q3 results from Ruby Tuesday. Friday, the focus turns to the Department of Labor’s September jobs report.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+5.07	+12.43	+13.55	+5.68
NASDAQ	+6.08	+14.97	+23.98	+13.52
S&P 500	+6.08	+12.93	+18.33	+6.23
REAL YIELD	9/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.00%	0.65%	0.17%	2.27%

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

 Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/30/16^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

---

Disclosure: This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage

Citations.
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