Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SLOWS IN NOVEMBER

Last month, consumer spending increased 0.2%, while consumer incomes were flat. November was the first month in nine in which household incomes failed to rise, and the consumer spending advance was half that of October. Even so, with consumer confidence indices and other economic indicators becoming stronger, the November figures may represent an anomaly. Another Department of Commerce report revised third-quarter growth up to 3.5%.¹

     

CONSUMER OPTIMISM AT A 13-YEAR PEAK 

The University of Michigan’s last consumer sentiment index of 2016 came in at 98.2, 4.4 points above its final November mark. It has not been that high since January 2004. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected an advance to 98.0.²

 

HOME SALES RISE AS TEMPERATURES DROP

Resales were up 0.7% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Census Bureau recorded a 5.2% November gain in new home buying. In October, new home sales fell 1.4%, while existing home sales improved 1.5%.³

 

CORE PCE PRICE INDEX SHOWS 1.6% YEARLY ADVANCE

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation meter was flat in November after ticking up 0.1% in October. The annualized gain was thereby reduced 0.2% to a number well under the central bank’s 2.0% target.^1,3

 

SMALL WEEKLY GAINS FOR STOCKS

Across the last five trading days, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all gained a little ground. The blue chips rose another 0.46% to 19,933.81; the S&P, another 0.25% to 2,263.79. As for the Nasdaq, the tech benchmark gained 0.47% to settle at 5,462.69 Friday. More consequential, perhaps, was the descent of the CBOE VIX. The “fear index,” gauging market volatility, ended the week at a remarkably low 11.44, falling 6.23% in five days.⁴

 

THIS WEEK: U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its last consumer confidence index of 2016 and the October S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index appears. The NAR issues its November pending home sales report on Wednesday.  Investors consider the latest initial unemployment claims figures on Thursday. Nothing major is slated for Friday.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+14.40	+13.24	+12.43	+6.15
NASDAQ	+9.09	+8.26	+21.72	+12.75
S&P 500	+10.76	+9.66	+15.78	+6.05
REAL YIELD	12/23 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.58%	0.76%	-0.04%	2.35%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/23/16^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN14B1J8 [12/22/16]

2 – cnbc.com/2016/12/23/consumer-sentiment-reports-for-december-2016.html [12/23/16]

3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [12/23/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/23/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/23/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

FED RAISES RATES, PLOTS THREE 2017 HIKES

Federal Reserve policymakers unanimously chose to raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point last week. That was expected; less expected was the central bank’s adjustment to its 2017 dot-plot. Fed officials now see three rate hikes next year instead of two. The move to the new target range of 0.50-0.75% sent the dollar and bond yields higher Wednesday – the yield on the 2-year note quickly touched a peak unseen since August 2009. Stocks suffered only moderate losses after the announcement. Federal Open Market Committee members now forecast economic growth of 2.1% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018.¹

     

RETAIL SALES TICK UP, PRODUCER PRICES RISE

Economists, polled by Briefing.com, had expected a 0.4% October advance for retail purchases; the gain was only 0.1% instead, and 0.2% minus car and truck sales. The Producer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after a flat October; the core PPI also posted a 0.4% increase. Inflation pressure remained steady for the consumer: both the headline and core Consumer Price Index advanced 0.2% in November.²

 

HOUSING STARTS FALL FROM 9-YEAR PEAK

Groundbreaking declined 18.7% last month as winter arrived, with single-family starts down 4.1%. The Census Bureau also reported a 4.7% November decline in building permits.³

 

DOW ADVANCES, WHILE NASDAQ, S&P 500 RETREAT

A relatively calm trading week ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 19,843.41, 0.44% higher than it had closed the previous Friday. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw small weekly losses; the Nasdaq descended 0.13% to 5,437.16, while the S&P declined 0.06% to 2,258.07. Over on the NYMEX, light sweet crude settled at $51.94 a barrel Friday; gold at $1,135.60 an ounce.⁴

 

THIS WEEK: Lennar announces Q4 results Monday. CarMax, Darden Restaurants, FedEx, General Mills, Nike, Steelcase, and Valspar all report earnings on Tuesday. Wednesday, investors assess the latest existing home sales numbers and earnings from Accenture, Bed Bath & Beyond, Finish Line, Micron Technology, Red Hat, and Winnebago. Thursday offers new initial claims data, reports on November consumer spending and durable goods orders, the November core PCE price index, the last estimate of Q3 GDP, and earnings from Cintas. Friday brings November new home sales figures and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 2016.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+13.88	+11.80	+13.44	+5.94
NASDAQ	+8.58	+7.22	+22.55	+12.13
S&P 500	+10.48	+8.92	+17.03	+5.82
REAL YIELD	12/16 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.74%	0.84%	-0.05%	2.29%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/16/16^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2016/12/14/fed-raises-rates-for-the-second-time-in-a-decade.html [12/14/16]

2 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2016/12/12-16 [12/16/16]

3 – cnbc.com/2016/12/16/us-housing-starts-nov-2016.html [12/16/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/16/16]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/16/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

SERVICE SECTOR LOOKS VERY HEALTHY

The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly services index improved 2.4 points in November to a 57.2 reading. Analysts polled by Briefing.com had expected a small gain to 55.6. It was the PMI’s best reading since October 2015, and it marked the 82nd consecutive month of expansion for the non-manufacturing segment of the economy.¹

   

HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT SOARS

Rising 4.2 points to a mark of 98.0, December’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in just a tenth of a point below its most recent (2015) peak. This was one of the index’s three highest readings in the last 12 years. The main reason, in the words of University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin: “More consumers spontaneously mentioned the expected positive impact of new economic policies than ever before recorded in the long history of the surveys.”²

 

OIL FINISHES THE WEEK WITH A FLOURISH

WTI crude advanced 1.22% Friday, reaching $51.46 a barrel as Wall Street ended its trading day. Gold and silver respectively slipped 1.11% and 1.03% on the same day; gold ending the week at $1,159.40 an ounce, and silver, at $16.92 an ounce.³

 

WILL THE DOW HIT 20,000 BEFORE THE END OF 2016?

Investors are starting to wonder. As stocks closed at record highs Friday, the blue chips settled closer to that potential milestone at 19,756.85. The Dow gained 3.06% on the week. Five-day advances for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were even greater. The Nasdaq rose 3.59% to 5,444.50 during the week, while the S&P climbed 3.08% to 2,259.53. When the closing bell rang Friday, the S&P was up 4.39% month-over-month, the CBOE VIX volatility index down 17.08% in a month.³

 

THIS WEEK: Monday, Verifone Systems announces quarterly results. Nothing notable is slated for Tuesday. The Federal Reserve makes an interest rate decision on Wednesday, and in addition to that, Wall Street will react to the November Producer Price Index, reports on November retail sales and industrial output, and earnings from Pier 1 Imports, Progressive and Worthington Industries. November’s Consumer Price Index, and the latest initial jobless claims report arrive Thursday, as well as earnings from Adobe Systems, Jabil Circuit, Navistar, Oracle, and Rite Aid. Friday, the Census Bureau releases data on November groundbreaking and building permits, and Carnival presents a new earnings report.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+13.38	+12.95	+12.43	+6.05
NASDAQ	+8.73	+8.39	+21.15	+12.34
S&P 500	+10.55	+10.35	+16.00	+6.03
REAL YIELD	12/9 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.51%	0.69%	0.05%	2.21%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/9/16^3,4,5,6

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/napmserv.htm [12/5/16]

2 – sca.isr.umich.edu/ [12/9/16]

3 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16]

5 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/9/16]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/9/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

Jobs Report Shows Unemployment at 4.6%

America’s jobless rate fell to a nine-year low in November as companies added 178,000 net new jobs. The U-6 rate (including the underemployed decreased) 0.2% to 9.3%. There were some negatives: yearly wage growth moderated to 2.5%, and the labor force participation rate ticked down to 62.7%, in part because of baby boomer retirements.¹

    

STRONG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, SPENDING, GDP

As November ended, the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index rose 6.3 points to a mark of 107.1. In October, personal spending increased 0.3%, according to the Census Bureau, with personal incomes up 0.6%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised third quarter growth upward by 0.3% to 3.2% last week.²

 

PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES SEE GAINS

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed a 5.5% annualized gain in its September edition, improved from 5.2% in August. Housing contract activity rose another 0.1% in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.²

 

MANUFACTURING INDEX IMPROVES

The Institute for Supply Management’s November purchasing manager index for the factory sector rose 1.3 points to 53.2, indicating another month of expansion. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had projected a reading of 52.5.²

 

OIL PRICES SKYROCKET; S&P 500 DECLINES

News of OPEC’s oncoming production cut drove WTI crude to its best week since January 2009. Futures settled Friday at $51.68 on the NYMEX, up 12.2% in five days (including a Thursday-Friday leap of almost 13%). Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced among key Wall Street indices last week, rising 0.10% to 19,170.42. The S&P 500 dipped 0.97% on the week to 2,191.95; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.65% to 5,255.65; and the Russell 2000, 2.45% to 1,314.25.^3,4

 

THIS WEEK: November’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI appears Monday. Earnings from Analogic, AutoZone, Bob Evans Farms, Dave & Buster’s, Michaels Stores, and Toll Brothers arrive Tuesday, plus a report on October factory orders. Wednesday’s earnings parade includes results from Casey’s General Stores, Costco, H&R Block, and Lululemon Athletica. A new initial jobless claims report comes out on Thursday, along with earnings from Broadcom, Dell, Hovnanian, and Toro. Friday brings the initial December consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+10.02	+8.13	+11.90	+5.72
NASDAQ	+4.96	+2.58	+20.01	+11.78
S&P 500	+7.24	+5.41	+15.23	+5.69
REAL YIELD	12/2 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.49%	0.62%	0.00%	2.10%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/2/16^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-november-2016-2016-12 [12/2/16]

2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [12/2/16]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-edge-lower-as-investors-assess-what-opec-oil-deal-can-deliver-2016-12-02/ [12/2/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/2/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/2/16]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
November was certainly newsworthy, presenting investors with three historic moments. First, Donald Trump won the presidency in a stunning upset that confounded political analysts. Next, the stock market rallied spectacularly after receiving that unanticipated news – the Dow Jones Industrial Average repeatedly closed at all-time peaks, advancing 5.41% on the month. Finally, OPEC nations agreed to reduce oil output for the first time since 2008, a development that sent crude prices soaring. On the whole, the latest U.S. economic indicators looked good. Existing home sales maintained their pace, even as mortgage rates climbed. A December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve looked more and more likely.^1,2

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
Consumers spent significantly in October. The latest reports from the Department of Commerce showed personal spending up 0.3% in the tenth month of the year, and both headline and core retail sales advancing 0.8%. Personal incomes increased by an impressive 0.6% in October.^3,4

 

Consumer confidence surged in November. The Conference Board’s monthly index hit 107.1, jumping 6.3 points from its October reading; analysts polled by MarketWatch felt it would rise to 102.5. The University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment gauge rose to 93.8.³

 

On the hiring front, companies added 161,000 net new workers in October. (The Department of Labor also revised August and September hiring totals upwards by a combined 44,000.) Unemployment was at 4.9%; the U-6 rate (which also counts the underemployed) was at 9.5%. Yearly wage growth reached a six-and-a-half-year peak at 2.8%.⁵

 

The manufacturing and service sectors appeared healthy, according to the latest key U.S. purchasing manager indexes. The Institute for Supply Management’s globally watched factory sector PMI rose 0.4 points to 51.9; its service sector PMI fell 2.3 points to 54.8, but was still well above 50, the number delineating expansion from contraction. In other news relating to manufacturing, hard goods orders rose 4.8% in October (core orders were up but 0.4%), and the federal government’s second estimate of Q3 GDP improved to 3.2% from an initial 2.9%.^3,6

 

Inflation pressure did increase for consumers in early fall. The Consumer Price Index showed a 0.4% October gain, leaving it up 1.6% annually. Core consumer prices had risen 2.1% in 12 months. Affected notably by fuel costs, the Producer Price Index was flat in October and only up 0.8% year-over-year.^3,4 

On November 17, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen sent a strong signal that an interest rate adjustment was near. She commented that a rate hike could occur “relatively soon,” as monetary policy appeared to be only “moderately accommodative.” Only “gradual increases in the federal funds rate” might be needed to meet an oncoming inflation threat, she noted.⁷

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
OPEC countries formally agreed to decrease oil output on November 30, surprising those who thought that its tentative summer accord would never be finalized. Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to major production cuts, and while Russia does not belong to OPEC, word came that it would also agree to cut output if OPEC set per-nation production quotas. In the wake of the deal, Morgan Stanley analysts commented that oil prices might rise by as much as $5 a barrel.²

An encouraging economic sign emerged from Europe. Yearly euro area inflation ticked up to 0.6% in November, with annualized core inflation at 0.8%. As last month ended, European investors waited to see if the European Central Bank would choose to extend its current bond-purchase program beyond March. Bloomberg reported that the euro area jobless rate remained at 10.0% in October.⁸

The Philippines appeared to displace China as Asia’s fastest growing economy. According to Reuters, its GDP reached 7.1% in the third quarter. China’s official Q3 GDP reading came in at 6.7%.⁹

India suffered through a cash crunch last month as Prime Minister Nandrenda Modi shockingly decided to outlaw the country’s 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes. The move instantly took 86% of India’s money supply out of circulation. Modi was combating the country’s “black money” problem – wealthy households secreting portions of their incomes in pursuit of tax savings. He announced that new currency would quickly be issued, but former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh denounced the tactic as a “monumental management failure” and “a case of organized loot and legalized plunder of the common people.”¹⁰

 

WORLD MARKETS
Foreign stock benchmark performance in November can be summed up in a convenient phrase: all over the place. Russia’s MICEX led the way, going +6.21%. Close behind were the Nikkei 225 at +4.94% and the Shanghai Composite at +4.71%. Australia’s All-Ordinaries went +2.45; Canada’s TSX Composite, +2.01%; and the MSCI World index, +1.25%. European gains included the CAC-40 at +0.65% and the FTSE Eurofirst 300 at +0.36%.^11,12

Several major indices lost ground in November. They included the DAX at -0.52%, the Hang Seng at -0.72%, the FTSE 100 at -3.04%, Brazil’s Bovespa at -3.71%, India’s NFTE 50 at -4.65%, the MSCI Emerging Markets at -4.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 at -5.58%, and Mexico’s Bolsa at -5.61%.^11,12

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Gold futures sank in November as investors ran back to equities. The yellow metal lost 7.93% for the month to a COMEX close of $1,172.00 on November 30. Silver futures mirrored that descent, sinking 7.44% to a month-end close of $16.48. While platinum fell 6.92%, copper (a base metal) absolutely took off, rising 19.07%.¹³

 

Boosted by news of the OPEC deal, light sweet crude finished the month with a flourish, rallying sharply to leave its monthly advance at 4.75%. Oil futures closed at $48.98 on the NYMEX November 30. Natural gas gained 12.28%; heating oil, 5.12%; unleaded gasoline, 2.21%. As for crops, cotton rose 4.49%; soybeans, 3.02%; corn slipped, 4.51%; wheat, 7.47%; coffee, 9.96%; and sugar, 10.88%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 3.25% month-over-month to a November 30 settlement of 101.47.^13,14

 

REAL ESTATE
New and existing home sales went opposite ways in October. Resales increased 2.0% by the estimate of the National Association of Realtors, while the Census Bureau reported a 1.9% reduction in the pace of new home buying. During the year ending in October, the median sale price for an existing home rose 6.0% to $232,200, while the median sale price for a new home went 1.9% higher to $304,500.¹⁵

The average interest rate on a conventional home loan rose half a percent during November, with the bond market expecting greater infrastructure spending (and greater inflation) in the near future. Freddie Mac’s November 23 Primary Mortgage Market Survey (its last of the month) showed the 30-year FRM averaging 4.03% interest; average interest on the 15-year FRM and 5/1-year ARM was, respectively, at 3.25% and 3.12%. On October 27, the numbers were: 30-year FRM, 3.47%; 15-year FRM, 2.78%; 5/1-year ARM, 2.84%.^15,16

Looking at some of the other real estate reports issued in November, the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was up 5.5% year-over-year in its September edition, improved from 5.2% a month earlier. Issuance of building permits increased just 0.3% in October, but housing starts advanced 25.5%. Finally, the NAR reported an 0.1% October gain for pending home sales.^3,4

 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
Small caps had a phenomenal month. The Russell 2000 gained 11.02% as investors sensed its member firms would especially benefit from presumed increases in defense and infrastructure spending. The Dow’s 5.41% November gain outdistanced the 3.41% advance of the S&P 500 and the 2.62% improvement of the Nasdaq. The November 30 closing settlements: DJIA, 19,123.58; NASDAQ, 5,323.68; S&P, 2,198.81; RUT, 1,322.34. The CBOE VIX ended the month down at 13.33.^1,14

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+9.75	+7.92	+11.75	+5.65
NASDAQ	+6.32	+4.21	+20.63	+11.89
S&P 500	+7.58	+5.69	+15.27	+5.70
REAL YIELD	11/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.43%	0.62%	0.03%	2.16%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: barchart.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/30/16^14,17,18,19

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

November certainly did not play out according to expectations. Who thought Wall Street’s benchmarks would rally to all-time highs, especially with the way they slumped before the election? Perhaps, December will pleasantly surprise us as well. Assuming the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, can stocks retain some of their impressive momentum through the end of the year? In the near term, possibly. Some of the investing and economic factors that garner the most attention – GDP, consumer spending, consumer confidence, hiring, and earnings growth – have been quite positive recently. (In fact, the earnings recession is now over. As November ended, 98% of S&P 500 firms had reported quarterly results according to FactSet, with Q3 earnings for the S&P up by 3.2%.) So, yes, this bullishness may persist through the end of the year. On the horizon, there is the fear that accelerating inflation (and corresponding tightening) could keep the bulls in check. That could be something to worry about as 2017 unfolds.²⁰

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: After the December 2 release of the Department of Labor’s November jobs report, the December roll call of scheduled news items proceeds as follows: the November ISM service sector PMI (12/5), October factory orders (12/6), December’s preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (12/9), a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, November retail sales, the November PPI and November industrial output (12/14), the November CPI (12/15), statistics on November groundbreaking and building permits (12/16), November existing home sales (12/21), the November PCE price index, November durable goods orders and the final estimate of Q3 growth (12/22), November new home sales and the final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (12/23), the year’s last consumer confidence index from the Conference Board plus October’s S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (12/27), and then November pending home sales (12/28). The November personal spending report will be issued in early January.

 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.