Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

EXISTING HOME SALES HIT A 10-YEAR PEAK

Rising 4.4% for March, resales surpassed expectations – analysts polled by Reuters projected a gain of 2.5%. The National Association of Realtors said that sales were 5.9% improved from a year before, and that put them at their best level since February 2007, even with existing home inventory 6.6% slimmer than in March 2016.¹

       

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY WANES

Department of Commerce data showed a 6.8% reduction in housing starts in March. Even with that fall, starts were up 9.2% in 12 months. Building permits rose 3.6% last month, resulting in a 17.0% annualized increase.²

 

LIGHT SWEET CRUDE SLIDES 7% IN 5 TRADING DAYS

WTI crude settled at $49.62 Friday, 7.4% below where it had closed a week earlier. One influence was a Baker Hughes report showing that the number of active rigs had increased for a fourteenth consecutive week.³

 

STOCKS END CHOPPY WEEK HIGHER

Five days of rollercoastering ultimately sent the S&P 500 to a 0.85% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite respectively advanced 0.46% and 1.82% in the same stretch. At Friday’s close, the Dow settled at 20,547.76; the S&P, at 2,348.69; and the Nasdaq, at 5,910.52.⁴

 

THIS WEEK: Monday, earnings arrive from Coach, Express Scripts, Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly-Clark, Newmont Mining, and T. Rowe Price. The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index, the February S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and March new home sales data appear Tuesday, along with earnings from 3M, AT&T, Baker Hughes, Biogen, Capital One, Caterpillar, Chubb, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Fifth Third, Freeport-McMoRan, McDonald’s, Northern Trust, Novartis, and Xerox. On Wednesday, the earnings lineup includes Alaska Air, Amgen, Anthem, Boeing, Credit Suisse, Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Equifax, GlaxoSmithKline, Hershey, Ingersoll-Rand, Norfolk Southern, O’Reilly Auto Parts, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Rockwell Automation, State Street, and T-Mobile. Earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, American Airlines, Comcast, Dow Chemical, Expedia, Ford Motor Co., MGM Resorts, Microsoft, Parker-Hannifin, Southwest Airlines, Under Armour, and Western Digital all roll out Thursday, complementing reports on initial jobless claims and March durable goods orders and housing contract activity. Exxon Mobil, General Motors, Phillips 66, UBS Group AG, and Weyerhaeuser issue earnings news Friday, as investors also consider the federal government’s first estimate of Q1 growth and the University of Michigan’s final April consumer sentiment index.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+3.97	+14.27	+11.54	+5.85
NASDAQ	+9.80	+19.50	+19.40	+13.40
S&P 500	+4.91	+12.30	+14.08	+5.82
REAL YIELD	4/21 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.40%	0.24%	-0.24%	2.27%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/21/17^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSKBN17N1QU [4/21/17]

2 – marketwatch.com/story/housing-starts-fall-7-but-permits-pick-up-the-slack-in-march-2017-04-18 [4/18/17]

3 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/04/21/oil-ends-under-50-as-signs-rising-us-output-cast-doubts-over-opec-cut-extension.html [4/21/17]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F21%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F21%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F21%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/21/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/21/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/21/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

PRICES DECLINE IN MARCH

In March, the Consumer Price Index retreated for the first time in 13 months. Its 0.3% dip left annualized consumer inflation at a moderate 2.4%. Fuels, autos, and groceries have all become less expensive recently, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Core consumer prices were up 2.0% in the year ending in March. The Producer Price Index fell just 0.1% in March, with the yearly PPI gain left at 2.3%.^1,2

       

RETAIL SALES FALL

March’s 0.2% decrease followed a 0.3% pullback in February. The silver lining? Minus gas and vehicle sales, retail sales were up 0.1% last month. Core retail sales were flat for March.²

 

AN IMPROVEMENT FOR CONSUMER SENTIMENT

Rising to an initial April reading of 98.0, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index improved 2.1 points from its final March level. The index’s current conditions component increased 2.0 points to an outstandingly high 115.2.²

 

A VOLATILE WEEK FOR STOCKS

Selling outweighed buying during this past, abbreviated market week. Across four trading days, the S&P 500 fell 1.12% as U.S. investors considered both corporate earnings and global tensions. The Nasdaq Composite’s weekly losses were slightly deeper at 1.21%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined only 0.97%. Friday’s settlements: Dow, 20,453.25; Nasdaq, 5,805.15; S&P, 2,328.95.^3,4

 

THIS WEEK: Earnings from Celanese, DISH Network, J.B. Hunt, and Netflix appear Monday. Tuesday, investors review earnings from Bank of America, Charles Schwab, Citrix, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan, UnitedHealth, W.W. Grainger, and Yahoo!, along with data on March housing starts, building permits, and industrial output; also, Facebook’s F8 conference begins. Earnings announcements from Abbott Labs, American Express, BlackRock, CSX, eBay, Kaiser Aluminum, Morgan Stanley, Qualcomm, TD Ameritrade, and U.S. Bancorp emerge Wednesday, plus a new Federal Reserve Beige Book. On Thursday, the earnings parade includes Alliance Data, American Airlines, BB&T, BONY Mellon, Briggs & Stratton, D.R. Horton, E*TRADE, GATX, Imax, KeyCorp, Mattel, Nucor, PPG, Philip Morris, Sherwin-Williams, Snap-On, Travelers Companies, Unilever, Verizon, and Visa. March existing home sales figures are out Friday, along with earnings from General Electric, Honeywell International, Rockwell Collins, Schlumberger, Stanley Black & Decker, and SunTrust Banks.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+3.49	+14.10	+11.83	+6.22
NASDAQ	+7.84	+17.37	+18.56	+13.30
S&P 500	+4.03	+11.82	+13.99	+6.03
REAL YIELD	4/14 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.32%	0.24%	-0.25%	2.31%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/14/17^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/story/inflation-falls-for-first-time-in-13-months-cpi-shows-2017-04-14 [4/14/17]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar [4/14/17]

3 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=4PbwWNn_O8-w2AbUyJ7ICQ [4/14/17]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F14%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F14%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F14%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/14/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/14/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/14/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

COMPANIES ADDED FEWER WORKERS IN MARCH

Just 98,000 net new jobs were created last month, and some analysts think Winter Storm Stella may have held hiring back. Even so, the Department of Labor’s latest employment report showed the U-3 jobless rate decreasing 0.2% to 4.5%; the broader U-6 rate fell 0.3% to 8.9%. The big factor in both declines: 326,000 people leaving the ranks of the unemployed. If all this seems incongruous, consider that the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles data from two separate surveys: one focusing on payroll growth; the other, on the employment status of individuals.¹

      

STRONG EXPANSION FOR SERVICE, FACTORY SECTORS

Another month, another wave of growth for industry and retail businesses – this was the tale told by the two purchasing manager indices at the Institute for Supply Management. For March, ISM’s service sector PMI came in at 55.2; its factory PMI, at 57.2. The services PMI lost 2.4 points from its February mark; the factory PMI, 0.5 points. Still, these readings were well above the crucial 50 level.²

 

FED MAY START TO REDUCE ITS BALANCE SHEET

According to the minutes of the March Federal Reserve policy meeting, most Federal Open Market Committee members believe that the central bank should begin shrinking its vast portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries later in 2017. The minutes noted that whether the FOMC decides to phase out or halt reinvestments, the shift in balance sheet policy “should be communicated…well in advance of an actual change.”³

 

STOCKS MOVE SLIGHTLY LOWER

Wall Street’s three major equity indices pulled back a bit last week. Over five days, the Dow ceded just 0.03% to 20,656.10. But the S&P 500 (closed at 2,355.54) and Nasdaq (closed at 5,877.81) took deeper respective losses of 0.30% and 0.57%. The Russell 2000 slipped 1.54% for the week to 1,364.56; the CBOE VIX “fear index” rose 4.04% to 12.87.⁴

 

THIS WEEK: On Monday evening, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen discusses monetary policy at the University of Michigan. Bank of the Ozarks reports Q1 results Tuesday. Earnings from Delta Air Lines, Fastenal, and Pier 1 Imports arrive Wednesday. On Thursday, the Q1 earnings season gathers steam, with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, and Wells Fargo all reporting; apart from that, the March Producer Price Index, the preliminary April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and a new initial claims report also appear. Friday brings March retail sales figures and the March Consumer Price Index.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.52	+17.75	+11.63	+6.45
NASDAQ	+9.19	+21.23	+18.16	+13.78
S&P 500	+5.21	+15.36	+13.70	+6.32
REAL YIELD	4/7 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.44%	0.12%	-0.16%	2.27%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/7/17^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2017/04/07/u-s-adds-just-98000-jobs-in-march-missing-expectations-by-a-wide-margin/ [4/7/17]

2 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm?SSO=1 [4/5/17]

3 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-minutes-idUSKBN1772G4 [4/5/17]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F5%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F5%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F5%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F5%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F5%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F5%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/7/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/7/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/7/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

PERSONAL SPENDING SLOWS

Consumers apparently chose saving over spending in the second month of the year. Last week, a Department of Commerce report noted only a 0.1% gain for personal spending in February. That happened even with personal incomes rising 0.4%, nearly matching the 0.5% January advance. In other news concerning personal spending, the Bureau of Economic Analysis raised its estimate of fourth-quarter GDP to a final reading of 2.1% from the previous 1.9%.¹

HOUSEHOLDS MAINTAIN THEIR OPTIMISM

The Conference Board’s much-watched consumer confidence index came in at 125.6 for March, soaring 9.5 points to a level unseen since December 2000. Economists polled by Reuters expected the index to descend slightly to 114.0. Losing 0.7 points from its preliminary March result, the University of Michigan’s household sentiment index remained high at 96.9.^1,2

 

A BOOST FOR PENDING HOME SALES

Housing contract activity increased 5.5% in February by the estimate of the National Association of Realtors, more than reversing January’s 2.8% decline. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (January) showed a 0.2% seasonally adjusted monthly gain and a 5.7% year-over-year improvement.¹

 

A GREAT QUARTER ENDS WITH GAINS

The past five trading days left the three major indices higher: during March 27-31, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.42%; the S&P 500, 0.80%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.32%. The quarter-ending settlements: Dow, 20,663.22; Nasdaq, 5,911.74; S&P, 2,362.72. Of the three, only the Nasdaq had a winning March, but the year-to-date column in the table below confirms the strength of the first quarter.³

 

THIS WEEK: Monday, the Institute for Supply Management releases its March manufacturing PMI. A report on February factory orders appears Tuesday. Wednesday, investors consider minutes from the March Federal Reserve policy meeting, the latest ISM service sector PMI, a fresh ADP payrolls report, and earnings from Bed Bath & Beyond, Monsanto, Rite Aid, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. The March Challenger job-cut report and new initial claims figures arrive Thursday, along with earnings from CarMax, Constellation Brands, Fred’s, Ruby Tuesday, and WD-40. The Department of Labor issues its March employment report on Friday.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.56	+16.84	+11.28	+6.73
NASDAQ	+9.82	+21.39	+18.24	+14.41
S&P 500	+5.53	+14.71	+13.55	+6.63
REAL YIELD	3/31 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.43%	0.16%	-0.09%	2.21%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 3/31/17^3,4,5,6

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [3/31/17]

2 – cnbc.com/2017/03/28/us-consumer-confidence-hits-1256-in-march-vs-estimate-of-114.html [3/28/17]

3 – markets.wsj.com/us [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F31%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F31%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F31%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F30%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F30%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F30%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F30%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F30%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F30%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]

5 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/31/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/31/17]