Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

WILL STOCKS GET AN EARNINGS BOOST?

While the first full week of the Q2 earnings season saw no pronounced rallies, there were also no shocks. By Friday’s closing bell, 20% of S&P 500 member firms had reported calendar Q2 results, and a FactSet analysis showed 77% had topped sales projections and 73% had beaten earnings-per-share forecasts – a good sign in an earnings-driven market climate. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% last week and settled at 6,387.75 Friday; the S&P 500 rose to 2,472.54 after a 5-day gain of 0.54%. As blue chips fell 0.27% across five trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 21,580.07 Friday. All three indices hit record highs during the week.1,2

 

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY SURGED IN JUNE

According to a new Census Bureau report, housing starts rose 8.3% last month, while building permits were up 7.4%. That counteracts the 2.8% fall for starts and the 4.9% drop for permits in May.3

  

GOLD TOPS $1,250

Settling at $1,254.90 Friday, the yellow metal hit its highest COMEX close since June 23, up 2.2% in five days. Silver rose 3.3% last week to a Friday close of $16.46.4

  

THIS WEEK: On Monday, Alphabet, Anadarko Petroleum, Celanese, Halliburton, Hasbro, and Stanley Black & Decker present earnings, and Wall Street also considers June existing home sales numbers. Tuesday offers a new Conference Board consumer confidence index and earnings from 3M, AT&T, Ameriprise Financial, Amgen, Biogen, Caterpillar, Chipotle, Chubb, Domino’s, Eli Lilly, Express Scripts, Freeport-McMoRan, General Motors, JetBlue, McDonald’s, Mondelez, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Smart & Final, Supervalu, Texas Instruments, U.S. Steel, and Universal Health. The Federal Reserve makes a policy statement Wednesday; investors will also look at June new home sales data and earnings from Anthem, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Corning, D.R. Horton, Discover, Facebook, Ford Motor Co., General Dynamics, Gilead Sciences, Hilton Worldwide, Ingersoll-Rand, O’Reilly, PayPal, Public Storage, Rent-A-Center, Rockwell Automation, Ryder System, State Street, Waste Management, West Marine, Whirlpool, and Whole Foods. Data on initial claims and June hard goods orders appears Thursday, plus earnings from Aflac, Ally Financial, Altria Group, Amazon, Baidu, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Dunkin’ Brands, Edison International, Expedia, Intel, Procter & Gamble, Raytheon, Revlon, Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Starbucks, Twitter, UPS, Valero Energy, Verizon, W.R. Grace, and Xerox. July’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the first Q2 GDP estimate appear Friday, plus earnings from American Airlines, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Magellan Health, and Merck.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+9.20	+16.54	+13.66	+5.58
NASDAQ	+18.66	+25.89	+23.67	+13.77
S&P 500	+10.44	+14.20	+16.29	+6.12
REAL YIELD	7/21 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.48%	0.05%	-0.67%	2.60%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/21/172,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2017/07/21/us-stocks-ge-drops-earnings-season-oil.html [7/21/17]

2 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/21/17]

3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [7/21/17]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-tries-for-most-robust-weekly-rise-in-two-months-as-dollar-drops-2017-07-21 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F21%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F21%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F21%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/21/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/21/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/21/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

INFLATION PRESSURE WEAKENS

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That left its yearly advance at only 1.6%, nearly half a point below the Federal Reserve’s target (the core CPI was up 1.7%). After the announcement, some economists and market strategists wondered whether the Fed would rethink its plans for a third interest rate hike in 2017. The Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in June, leaving its yearly increase at 2.0%.1,2

   

RETAIL SALES, CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX DECLINE

For the second month in a row, households scaled back their retail purchases – retail sales were down 0.2% in June following a 0.1% May decline. Core sales fell 0.2% after a May retreat of 0.3%. The University of Michigan’s preliminary July consumer sentiment index lost 2.0 points off its final June mark to a reading of 93.1.1,2

 

OIL RALLIES

A projection of rising demand and news of a pipeline shutdown in Nigeria sent the price of light sweet crude 5.2% higher in a week. WTI crude settled at $46.54 on the NYMEX Friday, its best close since July 3.3

  

DOW ENTERS RECORD TERRITORY AGAIN

Friday, the Dow 30 notched its third straight record close: 21,637.74. At the same time, the S&P 500 also settled at a new record of 2,459.27. The Nasdaq Composite finished Friday’s market day at 6,312.47, a half-percent away from its all-time peak. For the week, the Dow rose 1.04%; the S&P, 1.41%; the Nasdaq, 2.59%.4,5

  

THIS WEEK: Monday’s earnings parade includes announcements from BlackRock, Charles Schwab, J.B. Hunt, and Netflix. On Tuesday, Wall Street examines earnings from Bank of America, CSX, Comerica, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, TD Ameritrade, and UnitedHealth Group. Wednesday sees data on June housing starts and building permits, plus earnings from American Express, Fidelity National Financial, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust, Qualcomm, T-Mobile, U.S. Bancorp, United Rentals, and W.W. Grainger. A new weekly initial claims report arrives Thursday, plus earnings news from Abbott Labs, Alliance Data Systems, American Airlines Group, BB&T, BoNY Mellon, Capital One, Cintas, eBay, E*TRADE, GATX, KeyCorp, Microsoft, NCR, Nucor, Philip Morris, Sherwin-Williams, Skechers, Snap-On, Travelers Companies, Union Pacific, Visa, and Whirlpool. On Friday, Colgate-Palmolive, Fifth Third Bancorp, General Electric, Honeywell International, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, and SunTrust Banks present earnings.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+9.49	+16.92	+13.87	+5.56
NASDAQ	+17.26	+25.40	+23.41	+13.32
S&P 500	+9.85	+13.66	+16.25	+5.84
REAL YIELD	7/14 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.57%	0.08%	-0.59%	2.73%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/14/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2017/07/14/lack-of-inflation-raises-new-doubts-about-fed-ability-to-hike-interest-rates-this-year.html [7/14/17]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [7/14/17]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-gains-pause-but-optimism-remains-after-iea-report-2017-07-14 [7/14/17]

4 – money.cnn.com/2017/07/14/investing/dow-record-trump-rally-wall-street/index.html [7/14/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F14%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F14%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F14%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/14/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/14/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/14/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

HIRING PICKS UP AGAIN

The Department of Labor announced some good news Friday: the creation of 222,000 net new jobs in June, the largest hiring gain in four months. Approximately 4.7 million people reentered the labor force and found work in June, a peak unmatched in 27 years of monthly data. Wages rose 0.2% for an annualized gain of 2.5%. The main unemployment rate ticked north to 4.4% as more Americans joined the job hunt; the U-6 rate, including the underemployed, increased 0.2% to 8.6%, its first rise since January.1

   

ISM FACTORY PMI HITS 3-YEAR PEAK

In June, the Institute for Supply Management’s globally watched manufacturing purchasing manager index improved 2.9 points to 57.8, its highest reading since August 2014. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI rose to 57.4 after a half-point gain; its June reading signaled the 90th straight month of expansion for the country’s service sector.2,3

 

GOLD SETTLES AT ITS LOWEST PRICE SINCE MARCH

The yellow metal fell to a COMEX close of $1,209.70 Friday. It is now on a 5-week losing streak. The price of gold sank 2.6% last week, while the price of silver dropped 6.9%; silver ended the week down at $15.43.4

  

MAJOR INDICES MAKE SMALL WEEKLY GAINS

Across a stretch of choppy trading days, the S&P 500 added just 0.07% to close at 2,425.18 Friday. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted respective, 5-day advances of 0.21% and 0.30%. The Nasdaq wrapped up Friday’s market day at 6,153.08; the Dow, at 21,414.34.5

  

THIS WEEK: Monday, Barracuda Networks and WD-40 present earnings. On Tuesday, earnings appear from PepsiCo and Yum! Brands. Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen visits Capitol Hill to begin two days of testimony on monetary policy in Congress; in addition, the Fed releases a new Beige Book, and Fastenal reports Q2 results. Thursday, Wall Street considers a new initial jobless claims report, plus the June Producer Price Index. On Friday, a river of data arrives: a new earnings season begins with announcements from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, and Wells Fargo, complementing the initial July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the June Consumer Price Index, and June retail sales and industrial production reports.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.36	+19.66	+13.53	+5.73
NASDAQ	+14.30	+26.17	+21.90	+13.08
S&P 500	+8.32	+15.60	+15.80	+5.85
REAL YIELD	7/7 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.66%	-0.03%	-0.53%	2.79%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/7/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-07/wage-weakness-amid-solid-hiring-adds-to-u-s-economic-puzzle [7/7/17]

2 – cnbc.com/2017/07/03/june-ism-manufacturing-index.html [7/3/17]

3 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [7/6/17]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-slips-set-for-weekly-decline-ahead-of-jobs-report-2017-07-07 [7/7/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F6%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F6%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F6%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/7/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/7/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

HOUSEHOLD EARNINGS OUTPACE SPENDING

According to newly released Department of Commerce data, personal incomes improved 0.4% in May, but personal spending advanced just 0.1% after a 0.4% gain in April. Core consumer prices (minus food and energy costs) rose only 1.4% during the 12 months ending in May.1,2,3

   

WERE CONSUMERS MORE CONFIDENT IN JUNE?

By the looks of the University of Michigan’s monthly household sentiment index, no – that gauge fell 2.0 points to a mark of 95.1. On the other hand, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 1.3 points to a reading of 118.9.2,3

 

PENDING HOME SALES WEAKEN

A National Association of Realtors report showed housing contract activity declining by 0.8% in May. This follows a 1.7% dip for pending home sales in April.3

FIRST-QUARTER GDP REVISED HIGHER

Apparently, the opening three months of 2017 were not as economically sluggish as first thought. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third, concluding estimate of Q1 growth Thursday, modifying the number again to 1.4% from the previous revision to 1.2%.3

  

TECH SHARES SELL OFF AGAIN, STOCKS RETREAT

Volatility resurfaced in the tech and health care sectors last week, and as institutional investors reduced their holdings in firms within those industries, the effect rippled through all three major equity indices. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.61% to a Friday settlement of 2,423.41. The Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.99% to 6,140.42 by Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 0.21% lower at 21,349.63. Even so, Wall Street can look back on a fine first half for stocks. The S&P 500 just recorded its best 6-month gain since 2013.4,5

  

THIS WEEK: Wall Street takes a half-day on Monday, with stock trading wrapping up at 1:00pm EST; during the abbreviated session, investors will consider the June ISM factory PMI. Stock and bond markets are closed Tuesday for the July 4th holiday. Minutes from the June Federal Reserve policy meeting arrive Wednesday, plus May factory orders data. Thursday, the latest Challenger job-cut report and ADP payrolls report complement new initial claims figures and ISM’s June service sector PMI. On Friday, the Department of Labor issues its June employment report, and the Federal Reserve Board hands its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.03	+19.07	+13.15	+5.92
NASDAQ	+14.07	+26.80	+21.84	+13.59
S&P 500	+8.24	+15.46	+15.58	+6.12
REAL YIELD	6/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.58%	0.48%	-0.46%	2.65%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/30/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2017/06/30/us-personal-income-may-2017.html [6/30/17]

2 – sca.isr.umich.edu [6/30/17]

3 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [6/30/17]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/stocks-end-mostly-higher-to-book-best-half-year-gains-in-years-2017-06-30 [6/30/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F30%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F30%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F30%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F29%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F29%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F29%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/30/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/30/17]