30 Jul 2018

Weekly Economic Update for July 30, 2018

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

FIRST ESTIMATE OF Q2 GDP: 4.1%

Not since the third quarter of 2014 has the economy grown at such a pace. In its report released Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted 4.0% growth in consumer outlays during the quarter, a 7.3% improvement in business spending, and 3.5% more federal government spending. The BEA also revised the first-quarter GDP number up 0.2% to 2.2%.1

CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO A 6-MONTH LOW

The University of Michigan’s final July consumer sentiment index came in at 97.9, 0.8 points higher than its preliminary reading earlier in the month, but 0.3 points below its final June mark. This minor month-over-month descent left the gauge at its lowest level since January.2

HOME SALES RETREAT

Existing home purchases slowed 0.6% in June, and new home buying weakened 5.3%. June was the third straight month to see a pullback in resales, according to the National Association of Realtors, and existing home sales were down 2.2%, year-over-year, as the first half of 2018 ended. In its monthly report, the Census Bureau noted that new home sales are up 6.9% YTD.3

STOCKS PULL OUT OF CORRECTION MODE

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 – the Wall Street index that the financial media typically uses as shorthand for the broad stock market – exited its longest correction in nearly 34 years by settling at 2,846.07. (A correction is defined as a descent of at least 10% from an index’s peak close; an index recovers from a correction when it climbs 10% above a closing low.) The S&P gained 0.61% for the week, finishing Friday at 2,818.82. The Dow Industrials bettered that, adding 1.57% in five days to reach 25,451.06 at Friday’s closing bell. Losing 1.06% for the week, the Nasdaq Composite declined to 7,737.42.4,5

T I P O F T H E W E E K

It is better to create an emergency fund with gradual amounts from your paycheck than with a lump sum taken from an investment account. Retirement savings will not grow and compound if they are drawn down early.

THIS WEEK

On Monday, the NAR presents its June pending home sales index, and Acadia Healthcare, AK Steel, Bloomin’ Brands, Booz Allen Hamilton, Caterpillar, CNA Financial, Denny’s, KBR, Kemper, Loews, Logitech, Nautilus, Nutrisystem, Rent-A-Center, Seagate Technology, and Transocean offer earnings news. | Tuesday, June personal spending data emerges, along with the June PCE price index, the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index, and earnings from Anadarko Petroleum, Apple, Archer Daniels Midland, Baidu, BP, Charter Communications, Container Store, Credit Suisse, Cummings, Extra Space Storage, Fidelity National, Fortis, Fresh Del Monte Produce, Frontier Communications, Genworth, Huntsman, Hyatt Hotels, Pandora Media, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Ralph Lauren, Sony, Unisys, Vulcan Materials, WestJet, and William Lyon Homes. | On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve issues its latest policy statement, ADP puts out its latest payrolls report, the Institute for Supply Management unveils its June manufacturing PMI, and earnings arrive from Alamo Group, Allstate, AMC Entertainment, AmeriGas, Arcelor Mittal, AutoNation, Chesapeake Energy, Cirrus Logic, Diebold Nixdorf, Energizer Holdings, Express Scripts, Fitbit, Garmin, Hanesbrands, Herbalife, Humana, Macerich, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Molson Coors, Pitney Bowes, Prudential Financial, Public Storage, Sprint, Square, Taylor Morrison, Tesla, TripAdvisor, U.S. Steel, Valvoline, Voya Financial, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, and Zynga. | Thursday’s earnings roll call includes Activision Blizzard, Aetna, AMC Networks, AIG, Avon, Blue Apron, CBRE Group, CBS, Cigna, Clorox, DowDuPont, Duke Energy, Fluor, GoDaddy, GoPro, Icahn Enterprises, Kellogg, MGM Resorts, Motorola Solutions, Parker Hannifin, Pinnacle Foods, RE/MAX Holdings, Shake Shack, Spectra Energy, Symantec, Take-Two Interactive, Teva Pharmaceutical, Western Union, Wingstop, and Yum! Brands. | A new employment report from the Department of Labor appears Friday, plus ISM’s June non-manufacturing PMI and earnings from Kraft Heinz.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“No act of kindness, no matter how small, is ever wasted.”

AESOP

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	2.96	16.59	12.72	12.86
NASDAQ	12.08	21.38	22.83	24.17
S&P 500	5.43	14.03	13.33	12.84

REAL YIELD	7/27 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.84	0.49	0.43	1.70

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/27/185,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/07/27/us-gdp-q2-2018.html [7/27/18]

2 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27/u-s-consumer-sentiment-falls-to-six-month-low-on-trade-concern [7/27/18]
3 – nytimes.com/aponline/2018/07/25/us/politics/ap-us-new-home-sales.html [7/25/18]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-just-ended-its-longest-stint-in-correction-territory-since-1984-2018-07-25 [7/25/18]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F28%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F28%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F28%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F26%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F26%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F26%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/27/18]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/27/18]

23 Jul 2018

Weekly Economic Update for July 23, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

ANOTHER GOOD MONTH FOR RETAIL SALES

Americans are spending freely, as new Census Bureau data confirms. Retail sales advanced 0.5% last month, matching the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters, in the wake of a revised 1.3% May gain. (May was the best month for buying since last September.) The only negative note: core retail sales were flat in June. (Core sales exclude food, fuel, auto, and home improvement purchases.)1

HOUSING STARTS SINK TO A 9-MONTH LOW

Taking their biggest monthly fall since November 2016, starts unexpectedly dropped 12.3% in June. New Census Bureau data showed building permits declining 2.2% in June as well. In May, groundbreaking reached an 11-year peak.2

ARE MORE TARIFFS COMING ON CHINESE GOODS?

The possibility has just been raised. During a CNBC Squawk Box interview Friday, President Trump noted that perhaps all Chinese imports should face U.S. tariffs, explaining that he was “ready to go to 500” – a reference to the $505.5 billion total in Chinese products that came to America in 2017. The U.S. exported $129.9 billion of goods to China last year.3

A FLAT WEEK ON WALL STREET

While earnings and headlines certainly impacted market sectors, the major indices were little changed from where they began the week at Friday’s closing bell. Up 0.15% across five trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the week at 25,058.12. Moving north but 0.02% last week, the S&P 500 reached 2,801.83. Losing 0.07% on the week, the Nasdaq Composite settled at 7,820.20, Friday.4

T I P O F T H E W E E K

Are you a self-employed professional or a small business owner? You should seriously consider disability insurance. As your salary may be your household’s main (or only) source of income, an extended interruption in your earnings could disrupt your lifestyle and prove financially disastrous.

THIS WEEK

Monday, earnings announcements emerge from Alphabet, Halliburton, Hasbro, Kaiser Aluminum, Lennox International, Netgear, TD Ameritrade, Whirlpool, and Zions Bancorp; Wall Street also looks at June existing home sales. | 3M, Ameriprise Financial, AT&T, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Chubb, Eli Lilly, Harley-Davidson, JetBlue, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, Peabody Energy, Quest Diagnostics, Smith Micro, Stryker, Texas Instruments, TransUnion, UBS Group, and Verizon present earnings, Tuesday. | On Wednesday, the earnings roster includes Anthem, Boeing, Citrix, Coca-Cola, Corning, Dolby Labs, Equifax, Extended Stay Hotels, Facebook, Fiat Chrysler, Ford Motor Co., Freeport-McMoRan, General Motors, General Dynamics, Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, GrubHub, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Ingersoll-Rand, Mattel, Mondelez, NextEra Energy, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, O’Reilly, Owens Corning, PayPal, Qualcomm, Raymond James, Rockwell Automation, Ryder Systems, Sempra Energy, Sirius XM, Six Flags Entertainment, Smart & Final, T. Rowe Price, Trivago, Universal Health Services, UPS, Visa, and Waste Management; in other news, a June new home sales report appears. | Data on June hard goods orders and initial jobless claims surfaces Thursday, along with earnings news from Aflac, Alaska Air, Allergan PLC, Ally Financial, Altria Group, Amazon.com, American Airlines, Amgen, Anheuser-Busch, Beazer Homes, Bristol-Myers, Celgene, Chipotle, CME Group, Comcast, Conoco-Phillips, D.R. Horton, Daimler AG, Del Taco, Discover, Dunkin’ Brands, Edison International, Electronic Arts, Expedia, GNC, Hershey, Intel, International Paper, Live Nation, Marathon Petroleum, Mastercard, McDonalds, NCR, Nokia, Penske, Praxair, Pulte Group, Raytheon, Royal Dutch Shell, SkyWest, Spirit Airlines, Spotify, Starbucks, SuperValu, The Hartford, Under Armour, Valero Energy, Verisign, Western Digital, W.R. Grace, and Xerox. | On Friday, the first estimate of Q2 GDP arrives, plus the final July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and earnings from Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Merck, Phillips 66, Twitter, and Weyerhaeuser.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“It is wise to remember that you are one of those who can be fooled some of the time.”

LAURENCE J. PETER

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	1.37	15.95	12.24	11.85
NASDAQ	13.28	22.38	23.60	24.31
S&P 500	4.80	13.28	13.12	12.24

REAL YIELD	7/20 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.78	0.50	0.28	1.80

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/20/185,6,7,8

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/07/16/us-retail-sales-june-2018.html [7/16/18]

2 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts [7/18/18]

3 – cnbc.com/2018/07/19/trump-says-hes-ready-to-put-tariffs-on-all-505-billion-of-chinese-.html [7/19/18]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F20%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F20%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F20%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F19%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F19%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F19%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/20/18]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/20/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/20/18]

16 Jul 2018

Weekly Economic Update for July 16, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

INFLATION NEARS 3%

The federal government’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% across the 12 months ending in June, a level of annualized inflation last seen in February 2012. Yearly inflation has now increased for five straight months (although the headline CPI went north only 0.1% last month). The core CPI, which removes food and fuel costs, rose 0.2% in June, bringing its 12-month gain to 2.3%. Over the past 12 months, the cost of fuel oil climbed 30.8%; the cost of gasoline, 24.3%. Feeling the effect of those advances, the Producer Price Index rose 3.4% in the year ending in June.1,2

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT GAUGE DECLINES

At a mark of 97.1, the preliminary July edition of this consumer sentiment index came in 1.1 points underneath its final June reading. Still, it was close to its average reading over the past year (97.7). One year ago, the index stood at 93.4. Thirty-eight percent of consumers felt tariffs would negatively affect the economy, an increase from 21% in June and 15% in May.3

GOLD FALLS TO A 12-MONTH LOW

With a strengthening dollar providing a stiff headwind for the metals market, it was unsurprising that the key precious and base metals (gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum) all retreated last week. Gold suffered the least, declining 1.2% to a Friday settlement of $1,241.20, its lowest COMEX close since July 17, 2017.4

DOW CLIMBS BACK ABOVE 25,000

Finishing Friday’s trading session at 25,019.41, the blue chips rose 2.30% for the week, and outperformed the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 over five days. The Nasdaq gained 1.79% to close out the week at 7,825.98, while the S&P advanced 1.50% to end the week at 2,801.31.5

T I P O F T H E W E E K

There are multiple reasons why you should avoid taking a loan from your workplace retirement plan. One excellent argument against this move: you will deprive the funds you borrow of compounding power.

THIS WEEK

Earnings take center stage: Bank of America, BlackRock, J.B. Hunt, and Netflix lead the way on Monday, when investors will also consider June retail sales figures. | Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell begins two days of testimony before Congress on monetary policy on Tuesday; on the earnings front, Charles Schwab, Comerica, CSX, Fidelity National, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth all announce. | Wednesday, earnings news rolls in from Abbott Labs, Alcoa, American Express, eBay, Grainger, IBM, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust, Novartis, and U.S. Bancorp, and complementing all this, analysts consider June housing starts and building permits and a new Fed Beige Book. | On Thursday, BoNY Mellon, BB&T, Blackstone Group, Capital One, Celanese, Cintas, Dominos, E*TRADE, Fifth Third, GATX, KeyCorp, Microsoft, Nucor, Philip Morris, Snap-On, Sonoco, Travelers Companies, Unilever, and Union Pacific present earnings, and a new initial jobless claims report arrives. | Friday, earnings appear from Baker Hughes, General Electric, Honeywell International, Manpower, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, Stanley Black & Decker, State Street, and SunTrust Bank.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“Always aim at complete harmony of thought and word and deed.“

MAHATMA GANDHI

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	1.21	16.08	12.36	12.63
NASDAQ	13.36	24.73	23.48	25.37
S&P 500	4.78	14.44	13.35	12.81

REAL YIELD	7/13 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.72	0.58	0.55	1.43

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/13/185,6,7,8

CITATIONS:

1 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi [7/12/18]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [7/13/18]

3 – sca.isr.umich.edu/ [7/13/18]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-retreats-on-track-for-lowest-settlement-in-a-nearly-a-year-2018-07-13 [7/13/18]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F13%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F13%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F13%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/13/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/13/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/13/18]

09 Jul 2018

Weekly Economic Update for July 9, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR THE LABOR MARKET

Employers hired 213,000 more workers than they laid off in June, according to the Department of Labor. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a gain of 195,000. In the second quarter, net monthly job growth averaged 211,000. As the labor force participation rate increased 0.2% last month, so did the headline jobless rate: it rose 0.2% to 4.0%, moving north for the first time in almost a year. The U-6 rate, which includes underemployed Americans, also increased 0.2% to 7.8%. Annualized wage growth remained at 2.7%.1

BOTH ISM INDICES IMPROVED IN JUNE

The Institute for Supply Management’s twin purchasing manager indices came in at or near 60, last month. ISM’s manufacturing gauge rose to 60.2 from the previous reading of 58.7; its service sector index increased 0.5% to 59.1. MarketWatch projected both PMIs at 58.3 for June.2

FED MINUTES SHOW OPTIMISM, CONCERNS

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting were released Thursday, and noted that the economy’s expansion is “progressing smoothly” and at “a solid rate.” Policymakers also had some downside risks on their minds, noting the “possible adverse effects of tariffs and other proposed trade restrictions” and “political and economic developments in Europe.” Some FOMC members were concerned that rapid growth could breed “heightened inflationary pressures” and “financial imbalances” that might eventually provoke “a significant economic downturn.”3

TARIFFS TAKE EFFECT, BUT INVESTORS FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS

Strong jobs and manufacturing data helped to give the major indices a lift last week. In three-and-a-half trading days, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.37% to 7,688.39. Gaining 1.52%, the S&P 500 closed at 2,759.82, Friday; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.76% on the week to 24,456.48. Additionally, the Russell 2000 small-cap index improved 3.10% across the week to 1,694.05.4

T I P O F T H E W E E K

When was the last time you checked the beneficiary designations on your IRA, your life insurance policy, or your brokerage account? If you have not looked at them in a few years, review them this week to make sure they are up to date.

THIS WEEK

Nothing major is slated for Monday. | Tuesday, PepsiCo shares Q2 results. | The June Producer Price Index appears Wednesday, plus earnings from Fastenal. | Investors will pay attention to the June Consumer Price Index and the latest initial unemployment claims figures on Thursday. | Friday, a new earnings season begins: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, and Wells Fargo announce Q2 results, and in addition, the University of Michigan offers its initial July consumer sentiment index.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“The end is nothing. The road is all.“

WILLA CATHER

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	-1.06	14.71	12.32	11.77
NASDAQ	11.37	26.26	24.19	24.27
S&P 500	3.22	14.53	13.82	12.04

REAL YIELD (%)	7/6 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.70	0.61	0.66	1.43

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/6/184,5,6,7

CITATIONS:

1 – fortune.com/2018/07/06/june-2018-jobs-report/ [7/6/18]

2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [7/6/18]

3 – cnbc.com/2018/07/05/fed-meeting-minutes-from-june.html [7/5/18]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F6%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F6%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F6%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F5%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F5%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F5%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/6/18]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/6/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/6/18]

02 Jul 2018

Weekly Economic Update for July 2, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

INCOME AND SPENDING RISE, ALONG WITH CORE INFLATION

According to the latest monthly Department of Commerce snapshot, personal incomes improved 0.4% in May. Personal spending, however, advanced just 0.2% (half the gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters) and was actually flat when adjusted for inflation. May also brought the sixth straight 0.2% monthly increase for the core PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve uses as its inflation yardstick. The core PCE was up 2.0% year-over-year through May, reaching the central bank’s annualized inflation target for the first time in more than six years.1

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GAUGES SHOW JUNE DECLINES

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Conference Board consumer confidence index both came in lower for June. The UMich index dipped 1.1 points from its previous reading to a final June mark of 98.2; meanwhile, the CB’s gauge dipped 2.4 points to a still-impressive 126.4.2

NEW HOME SALES JUMP 6.7%

In part, this May gain can be credited to a 17.9% surge in the South, which left new home buying in that region at its best annual pace in 11 years. The Census Bureau also noted that the median new home sale price fell 3.3% across the 12 months ending in May.3

A LOSING WEEK, BUT A WINNING QUARTER

All three of the major Wall Street indices retreated last week. The S&P 500 lost 1.33%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.37%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1.26%. Friday’s settlements: S&P, 2,718.37; Nasdaq, 7,510.30; Dow, 24,271.41. This data aside, all three benchmarks were in the green in the second quarter – the S&P advanced 2.93%; the Nasdaq, an impressive 6.33%; the Dow, 0.70%.4,5

T I P O F T H E W E E K

Are you concerned about your elderly parent’s ability to manage financial matters? Consider accompanying your mom or dad when they meet with their financial professional or CPA. You may gain some insight.

THIS WEEK

Monday, the Institute for Supply Management releases its June manufacturing PMI. | Nothing major is scheduled for Tuesday. | Wednesday is July 4th; U.S. financial markets are closed for the holiday. | Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting appear Thursday, in addition to the latest initial claims numbers, the June Challenger job-cut report, the June ADP payrolls report, and a new ISM service sector PMI. | The Department of Labor presents its June employment report Friday.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“Age is mind over matter. If you don’t mind, it doesn’t matter.”

SATCHEL PAIGE

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	-1.81	14.02	12.56	11.38
NASDAQ	8.79	22.23	24.14	22.75
S&P 500	1.67	12.34	13.85	11.24

REAL YIELD (%)	6/29 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.74	0.55	0.53	1.48

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/29/184,6,7,8

CITATIONS:

1 – reuters.com/article/usa-economy/wrapup-1-u-s-core-pce-price-index-hits-2-0-percent-spending-slows-idUSL1N1TU1BT [6/29/18]

2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [6/29/18]

3 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/u-s-new-home-sales-climb-to-six-month-high-on-surge-in-south [6/25/18]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/29/18]

5 – quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F29%2F17&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F29%2F17&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F29%2F17&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F28%2F13&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F28%2F13&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F28%2F13&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F30%2F08&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F30%2F08&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F30%2F08&x=0&y=0 [6/29/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/29/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/29/18]