27 Dec 2018

Weekly Economic Update for December 24, 2018

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

FED FAILS TO CALM WALL STREET

Federal Reserve policymakers voted unanimously last week to raise the benchmark interest rate by another 0.25%, putting the main overnight lending rate in the 2.25-2.50% range. Investors hoped for a hint of a pause in the Fed’s tightening plans, yet no such signal emerged. The central bank’s latest dot-plot showed a consensus projection of two hikes rather than three next year, but at the press conference following the rate move, Fed chairman Jerome Powell commented that monetary policy “does not need to be accommodative,” and noted that the Fed would continue to thin its balance sheet by up to $50 billion per month. Stocks dropped significantly in the wake of those statements. During an abysmal week for equities, the Dow Industrials fell 6.87% to 22,445.37; the Nasdaq Composite, 8.36% to 6,332.99; the S&P 500, 7.05% to 2,416.62.1,2

LATEST KEY HOUSING INDICATORS LOOK BETTER

The National Association of Realtors just reported a 1.9% gain for existing home sales in November; that follows a 1.4% October increase. In addition, builders started more projects last month. The Census Bureau said that groundbreaking improved 3.2% in November as the pace of building permits picked up 5.0%.3

ON MAIN STREET, THE DATA IS GOOD

Households boosted their spending by 0.4% in November, according to the Department of Commerce; October’s gain was revised to 0.8%. The final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (released Friday) showed a reading of 98.3, which was 0.8 points higher than its preliminary mark for the month. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had projected a final December reading of 97.2.3,4

OIL SETTLES UNDER $46

WTI crude also had a tough time last week. Futures settled down at $45.59 on the NYMEX Friday. Oil fell 11% week-over-week, a slide aided by a Baker Hughes report showing a jump in the number of active rigs.5

T I P O F T H E W E E K
If you receive an email about your taxes from the Internal Revenue Service, chances are it is fake. As a rule, the I.R.S. does not initially contact people about tax issues over the Internet.

THIS WEEK

U.S. stock and bond markets wrap up their trading sessions early on Monday, with no significant economic news scheduled. | Tuesday, all U.S. financial markets are closed for the Christmas Day holiday. | The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index appears on Wednesday. | Thursday brings the Conference Board’s December consumer confidence index, the November new home sales snapshot from the Census Bureau, and a new initial jobless claims report from the Department of Labor. | The National Association of Realtors presents its November pending home sales index on Friday.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“You can’t help someone get up a hill without getting closer to the top yourself.”

NORMAN SCHWARZKOPF

MARKET INDEX	Y-T-D CHG	1-MO CHG	1-YR CHG
DJIA	-9.20	-7.58	-9.42
NASDAQ	-8.26	-8.73	-9.08
S&P 500	-9.61	-8.20	-9.98

REAL YIELD	12/21 RATE	1 MO AGO	1 YR AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.02	1.09	0.55

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/21/182,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

17 Dec 2018

Weekly Economic Update for December 17, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

AS FUEL GROWS CHEAPER, INFLATION BECOMES TAMER

Last week, the latest Consumer Price Index arrived, showing no move for headline inflation in November and a 0.2% core inflation increase. That precisely matched the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters. What held the headline CPI in check last month? You can credit a sudden drop in gas prices, which fell 4.2%. Annualized inflation declined to 2.2%. Overall producer prices only rose 0.1% last month, compared to an October ascent of 0.6%.1,2

A MIDDLING ADVANCE FOR RETAIL SALES

During October, American households boosted their retail spending by 1.1% (originally reported by the Department of Commerce as a gain of 0.8%), but November presented a different story. Sales rose last month, but only by 0.2%. The gain remained at 0.2% with auto buying removed.2

OIL HEADS 2.6% LOWER

That was the weekly loss for light sweet crude, influenced by two factors: increasing dollar strength and concerning economic data from China, which made traders wonder if the P.R.C.’s demand for crude could lessen. Oil settled at $51.20 Friday on the NYMEX.3

STOCKS HEAD LOWER

Bothered by anxieties about global growth, bulls lost some of their appetite for risk last week. Across five trading days, the S&P 500 ceded 1.26%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1.18%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.84%. That left them at the following settlements on Friday: S&P, 2,599.95; DJIA, 24,100.51; COMP, 6,910.66. The small-cap Russell 2000 index had it worse, falling 2.57% to 1,410.81 over five days. While all this happened, volatility actually declined, at least according to the CBOE VIX; the leading gauge of Wall Street instability retreated 6.89% for the week to 21.63.4

T I P O F T H E W E E K
A simple tip to keep credit card spending under control: only use a card for purchases you know you can pay off within one month.

THIS WEEK

Oracle and Red Hat share quarterly results on Monday. | On Tuesday, the Census Bureau offers a snapshot of November residential construction activity, and Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Jabil, Micron Technology, Navistar, Steelcase, and Worthington Industries present earnings. | Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell; in addition, investors will consider October existing home sales numbers and earnings from General Mills, Paychex, Rite Aid, and Winnebago. | On Thursday, earnings roll in from Accenture, BlackBerry, Conagra Brands, Nike, and Walgreens Boots Alliance, and the Department of Labor issues a new initial claims report. | Friday, Wall Street reviews November consumer spending and capital goods orders data, the federal government’s third estimate of Q3 growth, and earnings from CarMax.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“Laughter is an instant vacation.”

MILTON BERLE

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	-2.50	-1.67	10.59	18.14
NASDAQ	0.11	0.79	14.54	35.82
S&P 500	-2.76	-1.96	9.29	19.93

REAL YIELD	12/14 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.07	0.48	0.72	2.43

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/14/184,5,6,7

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/12/12/us-consumer-price-index-november-2018.html [12/12/18]

2 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2018/12/10-14 [12/14/18]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-falls-as-stock-weakness-and-dollar-strength-dull-impact-of-bullish-supply-data-2018-12-14 [12/14/18]

4 – markets.wsj.com/ [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F14%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F14%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F14%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F13%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F13%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F13%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/14/18]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/14/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/14/18]

11 Dec 2018

Weekly Economic Update for December 10, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

HIRING PACE SLOWS

In November, U.S. employers added a net 155,000 hires to their payrolls. That compares with a (revised) gain of 237,000 recorded by the federal government for October. The Department of Labor’s latest jobs report showed the main unemployment rate holding steady at just 3.7%, and the U-6 rate (unemployed and underemployed) rising 0.2% to 7.6%. Annualized wage growth was at 3.1%. Will this middling job growth make the Federal Reserve think twice about a year-end rate move? Perhaps not: Friday, the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool put the chances of a 0.25% December rate hike at 76.6%.1

SERVICE & FACTORY SECTORS CONTINUE TO HUM

Early each month, investors and economists alike look at the Institute for Supply Management’s twin purchasing manager indices tracking expansion and contraction in manufacturing and service industries. The latest data is quite good. ISM’s November service sector PMI improved to 60.7, up 0.4 points from October; its factory sector PMI also rose, ascending 1.6 points on the month to an impressive 59.3.2

OPEC ADDRESSES IMBALANCE OF OIL SUPPLY, OIL DEMAND

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other key foreign producers agreed on Friday to cut production by a total of 1.2 million barrels per day for at least six months. That brought some relief to stateside oil investors, who watched WTI crude jump about 5% Friday; the commodity ended the week at $52.34 on the NYMEX.3,4

FOUR DAYS OF UPS AND DOWNS

Volatility reigned on Wall Street during an abbreviated market week. (U.S. financial markets were closed Wednesday in observance of the national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush.) Institutional investors found plenty of motivation to sell, partly due to a dimming outlook for a truce in the U.S.-China trade war. During the worst week for shares in nine months, the Dow Industrials fell 4.50% to 24,388.95; the S&P 500, 4.60% to 2,633.08; the Nasdaq Composite, 4.93% to 6,969.25.5,6

T I P O F T H E W E E K

Is your home a showcase for fine art, collectibles, or antiques? If your collection has significant value, it may not be adequately insured by a standard homeowner policy. You may want to consider specialized property coverage.

THIS WEEK

Casey’s General Stores announces quarterly results on Monday. | A new Producer Price Index arrives Tuesday, plus earnings from American Eagle Outfitters and DSW. | On Wednesday, investors will consider the November Consumer Price Index. | Thursday offers earnings from Adobe, Costco, and Fred’s, along with the Department of Labor’s latest initial claims numbers. | Federal government reports on November retail sales and industrial output appear Friday.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“Make up your mind to act decidedly and take the consequences. No good is ever done in this world by hesitation.”

THOMAS HENRY HUXLEY

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	-1.34	0.73	10.45	17.30
NASDAQ	0.95	2.30	14.31	34.34
S&P 500	1.52	-0.15	9.17	18.94

REAL YIELD	12/7 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.96	0.50	0.77	2.47

Sources: ft.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/7/187,8,9,10

CITATIONS:

1 – tinyurl.com/y93zzeuv [12/7/18]

2 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [12/6/18]

3 – cnn.com/2018/12/07/investing/opec-oil-prices/index.html [12/7/18]

4 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [12/7/18]

5 – markets.ft.com/data/world [12/7/18]

6 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/asia-signals-mixed-start-for-stocks-yields-drop-markets-wrap [12/7/18]

7 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F7%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F7%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F7%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F6%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F6%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F6%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/7/18]

10 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/7/18]

04 Dec 2018

Weekly Economic Update for December 3, 2018

by code204 | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

COMMENTS FROM JEROME POWELL INSPIRE A RALLY

Wall Street liked what it heard from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell last week. While speaking Wednesday to an audience in New York, Powell stated that interest rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.” He also noted there was “no preset policy path” for raising interest rates in the near term. These dovish signals helped to send all three major U.S. stock indices 2.3-3.0% higher for the day, and their weekly performances were stellar: across five trading sessions, the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.64%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 5.16%; the S&P 500, 4.85%. They settled Friday as follows: Nasdaq, 7,330.54; Dow, 25,538.46; S&P, 2,760.16.1,2

NAFTA REPLACEMENT DEAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP FORWARD

Friday, President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto formally signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at the 2018 G20 summit in Buenos Aires. The legislatures of each nation must now vote to approve the accord. The USMCA may face significant resistance in Congress.3

CONSUMER SPENDING PACE ACCELERATES; CONFIDENCE GAUGE STILL HIGH

In October, personal spending rose 0.6%, while incomes improved 0.5%. (In noting this, the Department of Commerce revised the 0.4% personal spending gain of September down to 0.2%.) The monthly consumer confidence index, maintained by the Conference Board, declined 2.2 points in November to 135.7; that still exceeded the 135.5 consensus forecast from analysts polled by Briefing.com.4

NEW HOME SALES AND PENDING HOME SALES DECLINE

Demand for new homes has faded in the last 12 months. The Census Bureau said that sales slipped 8.9% in October, leaving the annualized sales pace 12.0% below where it was in October 2017. Housing contract activity also waned in October: the National Association of Realtors announced a 2.6% dip for pending home sales, which had increased 0.7% during September.4,5

T I P O F T H E W E E K

When you write a will, you must name an executor: either a friend or relative, or a financial or legal professional. A financial or legal professional who serves as your executor will probably be paid with assets from your estate.

THIS WEEK

The Institute for Supply Management presents its November manufacturing PMI on Monday. | Tuesday brings some earnings: AutoZone, Bank of Montreal, Dollar General, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Restoration Hardware, and Toll Brothers. | On Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell testifies on the U.S. economic outlook in the Senate; the Fed also releases its latest Beige Book, ADP unveils its November employment change report, ISM offers its November service sector PMI, and American Eagle Outfitters, H&R Block, Five Below, Hudson’s Bay Co., Korn/Ferry, Land’s End, and Lululemon Athletica all share earnings news. | The latest Challenger job-cut numbers are out Thursday, along with a new initial jobless claims report and earnings from Broadcom, Hovnanian Enterprises, Kroger, Michaels Companies, Thor Industries, Toro, and Ulta Beauty. | Friday, the Department of Labor’s newest employment report takes center stage.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“Resolve to be thyself: and know, that he who finds himself, loses his misery.”

MATTHEW ARNOLD

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	3.31	5.22	11.75	21.34
NASDAQ	6.19	6.64	16.11	42.43
S&P 500	3.24	4.25	10.57	23.82

REAL YIELD	11/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.04	0.56	0.60	2.38

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/30/182,6,7,8

CITATIONS:

1 – investors.com/news/economy/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-fed-rates-neutral-dow-jones/ [11/28/18]

2 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/30/18]

3 – businessinsider.com/g20-summit-trump-signs-usmca-nafta-update-mexico-canada-2018-11 [11/30/18]

4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2018/11/26-30 [11/30/18]

5 – cnbc.com/2018/11/28/new-home-sales-october.html [11/28/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/30/18]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/30/18]