Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

GOOD NEWS ABOUT CONSUMER SPENDING, Q4 GDP
Personal spending and personal wages both increased 0.5% in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA also revised Q4 growth up to 1.0% from its initial estimate of 0.7%. As a footnote to all this, capital goods orders jumped 4.9% in January.¹

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WANES
The Conference Board’s much-watched monthly index tumbled 5.6 points in February to a 7-month low of 92.2. Rather than a significant monthly fall, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index took only a small one: it declined 0.3 points from its final January mark to a final February reading of 91.7.^1,2

HOME PRICES, EXISTING HOME SALES ADVANCE
Despite severe weather in many parts of the nation, existing home sales rose 0.4% in January, the National Association of Realtors announced. The Census Bureau reported a 9.2% fall for new home sales in January, countering an 8.2% ascent in December. The December edition of the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed no monthly advance, but the index rose 5.7% in 2015.¹

SOLID GAINS FOR THE MAJOR INDICES
During the past five trading days, investors saw the S&P 500 rise 1.58% to 1,948.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite mirrored that weekly gain, improving 1.51% and 1.91%, respectively, on the way to Friday closes of 16,639.97 and 4,590.47. Like stocks, oil advanced for a second straight week, rising 3.2% in five days and settling at $32.78 on the NYMEX Friday.^3,4

THIS WEEK: Monday offers NAR’s latest pending home sales index and earnings from Acadia Pharmaceuticals, Global Partners, Hertz Global, Magellan Health, and Tribune Media. ISM’s January factory PMI and China’s latest manufacturing PMI appear Tuesday, plus earnings from AutoZone, Bob Evans, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Progressive, and TiVo. Wednesday, investors assess the January ADP employment change report and a new Federal Reserve Beige Book, along with earnings announcements from Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Costco, and Weibo. Wall Street looks at the January Challenger job-cut report, a new initial claims report, and ISM’s service sector PMI on Thursday, along with earnings from Barnes & Noble, Broadcom, Burlington Stores, Diamond Foods, H&R Block, Kroger Co., Planet Fitness, Smith & Wesson, and Wingstop. Friday, the Labor Department presents its January employment report, complementing Q4 results from Big Lots and Staples.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	-4.51	-8.64	+7.44	+4.99
NASDAQ	-8.33	-7.97	+13.01	+9.90
S&P 500	-4.69	-7.71	+9.52	+5.05
REAL YIELD	2/26 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.35%	0.24%	1.02%	2.04%

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 2/26/16^5,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

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Disclosure: This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage

Citations.
1 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/calendar [2/26/16]
2 – tinyurl.com/zc93as5 [2/26/16]
3 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [2/26/16]
4 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-remain-under-pressure-as-traders-stick-to-bearish-mood-2016-02-26/ [2/26/16]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F26%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F26%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F26%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F25%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F25%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F25%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/26/16]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/26/16]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/26/16]

OIL REBOUND DRIVES STOCKS HIGHER

Thanks to frosty weather hitting the Northeast and a round of short covering, WTI crude settled at $32.19 on the NYMEX Friday – up 9% for the day and 9.4% for the week. Oil’s surge (and hopes of quantitative easing overseas) bolstered stocks: across four days, the Dow gained 0.66% to 16,093.51, the S&P 500 1.41% to 1,906.90, and the Nasdaq 2.29% to 4,591.18.1

 

EXISTING HOME SALES PACE IMPROVES 14.7%

This December jump in resales was partly due to November transactions being delayed by new closing rules. Regardless, 2015 was a good year for homebuying – existing home sales rose 7.7%, according to the National Association of Realtors.2

 

WEAK ENERGY PRICES HELP TO CURB INFLATION

Falling oil prices, rents, and food costs factored into the 0.1% December retreat of the Consumer Price Index (the core CPI rose 0.1%). The headline CPI advanced 0.7% in 2015 – the smallest annual increase in the past 50 years.3

 

BUILDER ACTIVITY TAILS OFF IN DECEMBER

The Census Bureau reported a 3.9% dip in building permits in December. Housing starts also declined 2.5% last month, but they were up 10.3% year-over-year.3

THIS WEEK: Monday, investors review earnings from Amgen, D.R. Horton, Halliburton, Kimberly-Clark, and McDonald’s. On Tuesday, a new Conference Board consumer confidence index arrives, plus the November S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and earnings from 3M, Apple, AT&T, Capital One, Chubb, Coach, Corning, Freeport-McMoRan, Grainger, Parker-Hannifin, Procter & Gamble, and U.S. Steel. December new home sales numbers and a Federal Reserve policy statement appear Wednesday, along with earnings from Ameriprise Financial, Anthem, Biogen, Boeing, Broadcom, Citrix, Dolby Labs, Discover, eBay, Facebook, General Dynamics, Hanesbrands, Norfolk Southern, PayPal, Qualcomm, SanDisk, Texas Instruments, and United Rentals. Thursday brings data on pending home sales and hard goods orders, initial claims numbers, and earnings from Abbott Labs, Airgas, Alibaba, Altria, Amazon, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, Celgene, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Ford Motor Co., Harley-Davidson, JetBlue, Microsoft, Northrup Grumman, PulteGroup, Raytheon, Sherwin-Williams, Time Warner Cable, Under Armour, Stanley Black & Decker, Valero Energy, VISA, and Western Digital. The first estimate of Q4 GDP appears Friday, plus the University of Michigan’s final January consumer sentiment index and earnings from American Airlines, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Honeywell International, MasterCard, Phillips 66, Praxair, Whirlpool, and Xerox.

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 1/22/164,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2016/01/22/us-markets.html [1/22/16]

2 – consumeraffairs.com/news/existing-home-sales-soar-in-december-012216.html [1/22/16]

3 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inflation-idUSKCN0UY1LH [1/20/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F22%2F15&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F22%2F15&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F22%2F15&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/22/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/22/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/22/16]