Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

HIRING PICKS UP AGAIN

The Department of Labor announced some good news Friday: the creation of 222,000 net new jobs in June, the largest hiring gain in four months. Approximately 4.7 million people reentered the labor force and found work in June, a peak unmatched in 27 years of monthly data. Wages rose 0.2% for an annualized gain of 2.5%. The main unemployment rate ticked north to 4.4% as more Americans joined the job hunt; the U-6 rate, including the underemployed, increased 0.2% to 8.6%, its first rise since January.1

   

ISM FACTORY PMI HITS 3-YEAR PEAK

In June, the Institute for Supply Management’s globally watched manufacturing purchasing manager index improved 2.9 points to 57.8, its highest reading since August 2014. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI rose to 57.4 after a half-point gain; its June reading signaled the 90th straight month of expansion for the country’s service sector.2,3

 

GOLD SETTLES AT ITS LOWEST PRICE SINCE MARCH

The yellow metal fell to a COMEX close of $1,209.70 Friday. It is now on a 5-week losing streak. The price of gold sank 2.6% last week, while the price of silver dropped 6.9%; silver ended the week down at $15.43.4

  

MAJOR INDICES MAKE SMALL WEEKLY GAINS

Across a stretch of choppy trading days, the S&P 500 added just 0.07% to close at 2,425.18 Friday. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted respective, 5-day advances of 0.21% and 0.30%. The Nasdaq wrapped up Friday’s market day at 6,153.08; the Dow, at 21,414.34.5

  

THIS WEEK: Monday, Barracuda Networks and WD-40 present earnings. On Tuesday, earnings appear from PepsiCo and Yum! Brands. Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen visits Capitol Hill to begin two days of testimony on monetary policy in Congress; in addition, the Fed releases a new Beige Book, and Fastenal reports Q2 results. Thursday, Wall Street considers a new initial jobless claims report, plus the June Producer Price Index. On Friday, a river of data arrives: a new earnings season begins with announcements from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, and Wells Fargo, complementing the initial July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the June Consumer Price Index, and June retail sales and industrial production reports.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.36	+19.66	+13.53	+5.73
NASDAQ	+14.30	+26.17	+21.90	+13.08
S&P 500	+8.32	+15.60	+15.80	+5.85
REAL YIELD	7/7 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.66%	-0.03%	-0.53%	2.79%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/7/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-07/wage-weakness-amid-solid-hiring-adds-to-u-s-economic-puzzle [7/7/17]

2 – cnbc.com/2017/07/03/june-ism-manufacturing-index.html [7/3/17]

3 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [7/6/17]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-slips-set-for-weekly-decline-ahead-of-jobs-report-2017-07-07 [7/7/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F7%2F16&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F6%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F6%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F6%2F07&x=0&y=0 [7/7/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/7/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/7/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

HOUSEHOLD EARNINGS OUTPACE SPENDING

According to newly released Department of Commerce data, personal incomes improved 0.4% in May, but personal spending advanced just 0.1% after a 0.4% gain in April. Core consumer prices (minus food and energy costs) rose only 1.4% during the 12 months ending in May.1,2,3

   

WERE CONSUMERS MORE CONFIDENT IN JUNE?

By the looks of the University of Michigan’s monthly household sentiment index, no – that gauge fell 2.0 points to a mark of 95.1. On the other hand, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 1.3 points to a reading of 118.9.2,3

 

PENDING HOME SALES WEAKEN

A National Association of Realtors report showed housing contract activity declining by 0.8% in May. This follows a 1.7% dip for pending home sales in April.3

FIRST-QUARTER GDP REVISED HIGHER

Apparently, the opening three months of 2017 were not as economically sluggish as first thought. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third, concluding estimate of Q1 growth Thursday, modifying the number again to 1.4% from the previous revision to 1.2%.3

  

TECH SHARES SELL OFF AGAIN, STOCKS RETREAT

Volatility resurfaced in the tech and health care sectors last week, and as institutional investors reduced their holdings in firms within those industries, the effect rippled through all three major equity indices. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.61% to a Friday settlement of 2,423.41. The Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.99% to 6,140.42 by Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 0.21% lower at 21,349.63. Even so, Wall Street can look back on a fine first half for stocks. The S&P 500 just recorded its best 6-month gain since 2013.4,5

  

THIS WEEK: Wall Street takes a half-day on Monday, with stock trading wrapping up at 1:00pm EST; during the abbreviated session, investors will consider the June ISM factory PMI. Stock and bond markets are closed Tuesday for the July 4th holiday. Minutes from the June Federal Reserve policy meeting arrive Wednesday, plus May factory orders data. Thursday, the latest Challenger job-cut report and ADP payrolls report complement new initial claims figures and ISM’s June service sector PMI. On Friday, the Department of Labor issues its June employment report, and the Federal Reserve Board hands its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.03	+19.07	+13.15	+5.92
NASDAQ	+14.07	+26.80	+21.84	+13.59
S&P 500	+8.24	+15.46	+15.58	+6.12
REAL YIELD	6/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.58%	0.48%	-0.46%	2.65%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/30/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2017/06/30/us-personal-income-may-2017.html [6/30/17]

2 – sca.isr.umich.edu [6/30/17]

3 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [6/30/17]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/stocks-end-mostly-higher-to-book-best-half-year-gains-in-years-2017-06-30 [6/30/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F30%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F30%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F30%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F29%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F29%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F29%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/30/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/30/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/30/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

MORE HOMES MOVED IN MAY

In a pleasant surprise for economists, both new and existing home sales picked up last month. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.1% gain for resales, with the average house for sale spending only 27 days on the market. New home buying increased 2.9% in May, resulting in an annualized gain of 8.9%. The average sale price for a new home was $406,400, a record.1

   

LEADING INDICATORS IMPROVE

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% for May, following gains of 0.2% for April and 0.4% for March. Most of the index’s components were positive for May and a steepening interest rate spread, a climb for the Institute for Supply Management’s new orders index, and greater consumer optimism about business and economic conditions were major factors. The LEI was up 3.5% year-over-year through May.2

 

CRUDE IS ON ITS LONGEST LOSING STREAK IN 2 YEARS

WTI crude settled at $43.01 at Friday’s closing bell, down 4.4% from the end of last week. This decline marked the fifth straight weekly retreat for oil; an 8-week losing streak ended in August 2015. Oil is now in a bear market.3

 

STOCKS ADVANCE

All three of the major U.S. equity indices had made 5-day gains by the time trading wrapped up on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added just 0.05%, advancing to 21,394.76, and the S&P 500 had improved 0.21% to 2,438.30. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.84% to 6,265.25. Even after this last sideways week, the Dow 30 ended Friday’s session up 1.49% month-over-month.4

 

THIS WEEK: On Monday, the Census Bureau shares data on May hard goods orders. Tuesday sees the release of the latest consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, plus earnings reports from Darden Restaurants and KB Home. Wednesday, the NAR puts out its May pending home sales report, and Franklin Covey, General Mills, Monsanto, Paychex, and Pier 1 announce earnings. The third estimate of Q1 GDP appears Thursday along with a new initial unemployment claims report and earnings announcements from ConAgra Brands, Constellation Brands, Micron Technology, Nike, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. The final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, May consumer spending figures, and the May PCE price index arrive on Friday.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.26	+18.79	+13.85	+6.01
NASDAQ	+16.39	+27.60	+23.32	+14.20
S&P 500	+8.91	+15.38	+16.53	+6.22
REAL YIELD	6/23 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.45%	0.24%	-0.42%	2.70%

 Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/23/174,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/23/new-home-sales-rise-in-may-as-prices-hit-record-level-update.html [6/23/17]

2 – haver.com/comment/comment.html?c=170622d.html [6/22/17]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-edge-up-as-big-producers-stick-to-cuts-2017-06-23-6103497/ [6/23/17]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F23%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F23%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F23%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F22%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F22%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F22%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/23/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/23/17]  

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

FED DELIVERS EXPECTED & UNEXPECTED NEWS

As Wall Street anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on June 14. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-1 to take the benchmark interest rate north by a quarter-point to the 1.00-1.25% range. The Fed also said it would begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet at some point “this year” by slowing reinvestments. As a start, it will let $6 billion per month in Treasury holdings run off, along with $4 billion per month in agency debt and mortgage-linked securities. This implies upward pressure on long-term interest rates.1,2

      

RETAIL SALES, HEADLINE INFLATION BOTH RETREAT

The Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% in May, noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics; core consumer inflation rose 0.1%. A bigger May decline came for retail purchases – the Census Bureau said that they fell 0.3% even with car sales factored out.3

   

HOUSING STARTS SLIP

The Census Bureau’s new residential construction snapshot showed groundbreaking at an 8-month low, with total housing starts down 5.5% in May. Total building permits decelerated 4.9% last month to their slowest pace since April 2016.4

 

GAUGE OF SENTIMENT DESCENDS

In its preliminary June edition, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell short of expectations. Economists, polled by Briefing.com, forecast a reading of 97.0 for the index, but it came in at 94.5.3

 

DOW 30 OUTPACES S&P 500

Rising 0.53% in five days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at 21,384.28. The S&P 500 made a weekly advance of 0.06% to a Friday close of 2,433.15. Tech shares kept selling off, resulting in the Nasdaq Composite’s 0.90% weekly descent to a Friday settlement of 6,151.76. The Dow Jones Utility Average had the best week among consequential U.S. equity indices, rising 1.75%.5

 

THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, Adobe Systems, FedEx, La-Z-Boy, Lennar, and Red Hat all present earnings. Wednesday offers May existing home sales figures and earnings announcements from CarMax, Oracle, and Winnebago. Earnings news from Accenture, Barnes & Noble, Bed Bath & Beyond, Carnival, and Sonic arrives Thursday, plus new initial jobless claims numbers. Friday, investors consider May new home sales and Q2 results from Finish Line.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.21	+20.59	+13.50	+5.68
NASDAQ	+14.28	+26.97	+22.83	+13.42
S&P 500	+8.68	+17.09	+16.24	+5.87
REAL YIELD	6/16 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.49%	0.15%	-0.54%	2.73%

 Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/16/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/story/fed-raises-interest-rates-to-reduce-balance-sheet-this-year-2017-06-14 [6/14/17]

2 – businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-rate-hike-plan-to-unwind-45-trillion-balance-sheet-2017-6 [6/14/17]

3 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/06/12-16 [6/16/17]

4 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN197277 [6/16/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F16%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F16%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F16%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F15%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F15%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F15%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/16/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/16/17]  

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

AN UPBEAT REPORT ON THE SERVICE SECTOR

The Institute for Supply Management’s May non-manufacturing purchasing manager index displayed a reading of 56.9 last week, showing expansion in U.S. service industries for an eighty-ninth straight month. Although the gauge declined 0.6 points from its April mark, it signaled a solid pace of growth. The index’s employment component rose 6.4 points to a mark of 57.8, as 15 industries added workers in May. The PMI has averaged a reading of 55.9 over the past 12 months.1

       

FACTORY ORDERS DECLINED IN APRIL

According to a new Census Bureau report, they decreased 0.2%. That marked their first month-over-month retreat of 2017. The 0.2% gain for March factory orders, however, was revised up to 1.0%. Orders increased by an average of 0.7% per month in the first quarter.2

   

ABUNDANT SUPPLY HURTS OIL

WTI crude lost 3.8% during June 5-9, tumbling to a $45.83 settlement on the NYMEX Friday. The U.S. rig count rose again last week, as it has every week for the past five months. While OPEC has vowed to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day, daily American oil output has increased by almost 600,000 barrels, so far, this year.3

 

TWO MAJOR INDICES RETREAT; A THIRD RISES

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.55% to 6,207.92, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.30% to 2,431.76. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to gain 0.31% on its way to a Friday close of 21,271.28. The CBOE VIX volatility index soared 17.03% for the week, settling Friday at 11.41.4

THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the May Producer Price Index on Tuesday; in addition, H&R Block and Wiley announce quarterly results. Wednesday, investors react to the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision, the May Consumer Price Index, the May retail sales report, and quarterly results from Jabil and Liberty Tax. A new initial jobless claims report arrives on Thursday, plus a report on May industrial output and earnings announcements from Bob Evans Farms and Kroger. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary June consumer sentiment index appears, along with data on May housing starts and building permits.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+7.63	+18.27	+13.89	+5.85
NASDAQ	+15.32	+25.19	+23.44	+14.12
S&P 500	+8.62	+14.95	+16.69	+6.13
REAL YIELD	6/9 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.43%	0.12%	-0.50%	2.69%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/9/174,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [6/5/17]

2 – briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/facord.htm [6/5/17]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-pinned-down-by-strong-dollar-supply-worries-2017-06-09 [6/9/17]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F9%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F9%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F9%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F8%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F8%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F8%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/9/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/9/17]  

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

JOB CREATION, JOBLESS RATE DOWN IN MAY

A day after ADP’s employment change report estimated a hiring gain of 253,000 in May, the Department of Labor’s latest jobs report told a far different story. It said employers added just 138,000 workers last month. The U-3 jobless rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.3% in May, partly because of people dropping out of the labor force. The U-6 rate, counting the underemployed, decreased to a 10-year low of 8.4%. Annualized wage growth improved 0.2% to 2.5%.1,2

      

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECLINES

The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence gauge remained well north of 100 in May. It came in at 117.9. The index actually descended 1.5 points from its (downwardly revised) April reading of 119.4.1

   

FACTORY GROWTH MAINTAINS ITS PACE

Rising a tenth of a percentage point to 54.9, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing manager index showed healthy sector expansion in May. ISM last measured a sector contraction (a reading below 50) in August.3

   

PERSONAL SPENDING INCREASES

In April, consumer spending grew by 0.4% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Additionally, the BEA revised the previously flat March personal spending number up to a 0.3% gain. Personal incomes also rose 0.4% in the fourth month of the year, twice the improvement seen in March.1

  

NO REINING IN THE BULLS

Rising 0.93% across four trading days, the S&P 500 ended last week at 2,439.07. The Nasdaq Composite continued its red-hot run, gaining 1.50% for the week to a June 2 close of 6,305.80. Settling at 21,206.29 Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.56% across its last four trading sessions. The CBOE VIX “fear index” closed at a remarkably low 9.79 Friday, down 30.27% YTD.4,5

 

THIS WEEK: ISM’s May non-manufacturing PMI appears Monday, along with data on April factory orders, and earnings from Casey’s General Stores, Dave & Buster’s, and Thor Industries. Conn’s, Fred’s, and Michaels Companies announce earnings on Tuesday. Navistar reports quarterly results on Wednesday. Thursday, Wall Street examines new initial jobless claims figures and earnings news from Dell Technologies, J.M. Smucker, and Verifone. Nothing major is slated for Friday.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+7.31	+18.88	+15.00	+5.52
NASDAQ	+17.14	+26.84	+25.90	+14.12
S&P 500	+8.94	+15.86	+18.17	+5.88
REAL YIELD	6/2 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.36%	0.27%	-0.59%	2.57%

 Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/2/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/05/29-02 [6/2/17]

2 – nytimes.com/2017/06/02/business/economy/jobs-report.html [6/2/17]

3 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence [6/24/17]

4 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ei=wccxWdD3B8GB2AaH_paYDg [6/2/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F2%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F2%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F2%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F1%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F1%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F1%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/2/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/2/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/2/17]  

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINES JUST A BIT

Ending May at a mark of 97.1, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell 0.6 points from its preliminary reading for the month. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast the gauge to remain at 97.7.¹

      

FEWER HOMES WERE BOUGHT IN APRIL

Both new and existing home sales tapered off last month. The National Association of Realtors said that resales fell 2.3% for April, while the Census Bureau announced an 11.4% retreat for new home purchases. While demand was high, tight supply reduced the number of buyers.²

 

FED MINUTES: Q1 SLUMP “LIKELY TO BE TRANSITORY”

With the Federal Open Market Committee expressing that exact opinion in the record of its May 2-3 meeting, investors saw little that would delay the central bank from raising interest rates in June. Still, the minutes sounded a cautious note. Fed policymakers “generally judged that it would be prudent to await additional evidence,” confirming that the winter economic slowdown was short lived prior to tightening further. The Bureau of Economic Analysis did revise its Q1 GDP estimate up to 1.2% last week, compared with an initial evaluation of 0.7%.^1,3

 

MORE RECORD HIGHS FOR NASDAQ, S&P 500

A great week for stocks saw gains of 2.08% for the Nasdaq Composite, 1.43% for the S&P 500, and 1.32% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Friday’s settlements: Dow, 21,080.28; S&P, 2,415.82; Nasdaq, 6,210.19. Friday’s S&P and Nasdaq closes were historic peaks for both indices. The S&P advanced for a seventh straight trading session to end the week, something it had not done since February. The Nasdaq 100 ended last week up 19.01% YTD.^4,5

 

THIS WEEK: Monday is Memorial Day – U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed. Tuesday, the April personal spending report and PCE price index appear. A new Federal Reserve Beige Book and the NAR’s April pending home sales report surface Wednesday, plus earnings from Analog Devices, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, Michael Kors, and Palo Alto Networks. Thursday is heavy on jobs data, as investors look at the ADP payroll and Challenger job-cut reports and the latest initial claims numbers; ISM’s May factory PMI also arrives, along with earnings from Boot Barn, Broadcom, Dollar General, Express, Five Below, and Lululemon Athletica. Friday, the Department of Labor issues its May employment report, and Hovnanian announces earnings.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+6.67	+18.24	+13.85	+5.61
NASDAQ	+15.36	+26.69	+23.77	+14.29
S&P 500	+7.91	+15.58	+16.66	+5.94
REAL YIELD	5/26 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.44%	0.25%	-0.38%	2.49%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 5/26/17^5,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [5/26/17]

2 – foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/24/existing-home-sales-slip-as-housing-shortage-weighs-on-activity-update.html [5/24/17]

3 – nytimes.com/2017/05/24/business/economy/fed-interest-rates-minutes.html [5/24/17]

4 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN18M18R [5/26/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F26%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F26%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F26%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F25%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F25%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F25%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F25%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F25%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F25%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/26/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/26/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/26/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY SLOWED IN APRIL

Against expectations, both housing starts and building permits declined in the fourth month of the year. Newly released Census Bureau data shows a 2.5% retreat for permits and a 2.6% pullback for starts last month. The key factors: a 9.2% drop in starts for multi-family projects (which have declined for four straight months) and a 4.5% fall for single-family permits.¹

        

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT SURGES

Economists polled by Briefing.com expected industrial production to rise 0.3% in April, following a 0.4% advance in March. The number surprised to the upside – the Federal Reserve reported a 1.0% improvement.²

 

GOLD & WTI CRUDE STAGE MAJOR RALLIES

As both stocks and the dollar hit a rough patch last week, investors turned to commodities. Gold advanced 2.1% on the COMEX in five trading days, settling at $1,253.60 Friday. Oil gained a little more than 5% for the week to a Friday close of $50.33 on the belief that OPEC would extend its current production cut.^3,4

 

STOCKS FINISH A CHOPPY WEEK LOWER

Wall Street took a plunge Wednesday on political concerns, then rebounded for two days. Still, all three major indices saw 5-day retreats. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.61%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.44%; and the S&P 500, 0.38%. Friday, the big three settled as follows: Dow, 20,804.84; S&P, 2,381.73; Nasdaq, 6,083.70.⁵

 

THIS WEEK: On Monday, earnings results roll in from Agilent Technologies, America’s Car-Mart, Booz Allen Hamilton, Sportsman’s Warehouse, and Valspar. Tuesday, the April new home sales report complements earnings news from AutoZone, Container Store, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, DSW, Intuit, Kirkland’s, Popeyes, Take-Two Interactive, and Toll Brothers. On Wednesday, existing home sales numbers appear along with minutes from this month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting and earnings from Advance Auto Parts, Chico’s FAS, Fred’s, Guess?, HP, Lowe’s, Sears Holdings, and Williams-Sonoma. A new initial claims report arrives Thursday, plus earnings news from Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Costco, Dollar Tree, GameStop, Hormel Foods, Lions Gate, Medtronic, Shoe Carnival, and Toro. Friday offers the second estimate of first quarter GDP, the final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, data on April hard goods orders, and Q1 results from Big Lots.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+5.27	+19.33	+13.64	+5.35
NASDAQ	+13.01	+29.10	+23.79	+13.78
S&P 500	+6.38	+16.75	+16.78	+5.64
REAL YIELD	5/19 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.41%	0.29%	-0.39%	2.46%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 5/19/17^5,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – businessinsider.com/us-housing-starts-and-building-permits-fall-in-april-2017-5 [5/16/17]

2 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/05/15-19 [5/19/17]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-climb-more-than-2-for-the-week-2017-05-19 [5/19/17]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-score-a-more-than-5-advance-for-the-week-2017-05-19 [5/19/17]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F19%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F19%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F19%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F18%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F18%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F18%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F18%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F18%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F18%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/19/17]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/19/17]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/19/17]

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

A SOLID RETAIL SALES READING

Americans bought more in April. The pace of retail purchases hastened by 0.4% last month, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the 0.2% March retreat into a 0.1% gain. Headline retail sales were up 4.5% across the 12 months ending in April. Core retail sales rose 0.3% in the fourth month of the year.^1,2

    

INFLATION PICKS UP AS SPRING ARRIVES

After falling 0.3% for March, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month. (The major factor: a 1.1% leap for energy costs.) This increase left annualized inflation at 2.2%. The core CPI (minus food and energy prices) advanced 0.1% in April. On the wholesale front, the Producer Price Index jumped up 0.5% in April, taking its year-over-year advance to 2.5%.^1,2

 

A GAIN FOR A CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX

The University of Michigan’s monthly barometer of household sentiment rose 0.7 points in its preliminary May reading to a mark of 97.7. Its consumer expectations component advanced 1.1 points to a reading of 88.1.²

 

MAJOR INDICES RIDE THROUGH A MIXED WEEK

Earnings misses from big retailers weighed on the S&P 500, which declined 0.35% across five trading sessions to a 2,390.90 Friday close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 0.53% in the same time frame, ending the week at 20,896.61. The Nasdaq Composite, however, advanced 0.34% last week to 6,121.23. At the closing bell Friday, all three indices were up 2.1% or more for the month.³

 

THIS WEEK: Monday, Cumulus Media presents Q1 results. Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, Jack in the Box, Red Robin, Staples, TJX Companies, Urban Outfitters, and Weibo announce earnings Tuesday, as investors also consider data on April industrial output, housing starts, and building permits. On Wednesday, the earnings parade features American Eagle Outfitters, Cisco, L Brands, Stein Mart, and Target. Thursday, Wall Street looks at the Department of Labor’s latest initial jobless claims numbers, the Conference Board’s April leading indicators index, and earnings from Alibaba, Applied Materials, Autodesk, Gap, Perry Ellis, Ralph Lauren, Ross Stores, Stage Stores, and Walmart. Earnings announcements from Campbell Soup, Deere, and Foot Locker arrive Friday.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+5.74	+17.92	+12.60	+5.68
NASDAQ	+13.71	+29.21	+21.73	+13.89
S&P 500	+6.79	+15.83	+15.33	+5.88
REAL YIELD	5/12 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.49%	0.15%	-0.28%	2.30%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 5/12/17^3,4,5,6

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

---

Citations.

1 – thestreet.com/story/14132954/1/s-amp-p-500-dow-decline-after-retail-sales-rebound-buoys-rate-hike-odds.html [5/12/17]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [5/12/17]

3 – markets.wsj.com/us [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F12%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F12%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F12%2F16&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F11%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F11%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F11%2F12&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/12/17]

5 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/12/17]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/12/17]