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Category: News

21 Nov 2016

Weekly Economic Update for November 21, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

YELLEN HINTS STRONGLY AT A RATE HIKE

Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen told Congress that the central bank could raise the benchmark interest rate “relatively soon,” calling current monetary policy merely “moderately accommodative.” She added that Fed officials envision “only gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability.” Friday, the Fed Rate Monitor Tool at Investing.com put the possibility of a December rate hike at 91%.1,2

  

FRESH SIGNS OF a HEALTHY ECONOMY

Two economic indicators really stood out last week. Headline and core retail sales increased 0.8% in October, according to the Census Bureau (which also revised the September retail sales gain north to 1.0%). Housing starts advanced 25.5% last month, the Bureau also noted; this more than offset a 9.5% September dip.3

 

CONSUMER PRICES ROSE 0.4% in october

This change in the Consumer Price Index took its year-over-year increase to 1.6%. A mere 0.1% monthly gain in the core CPI left its 12-month advance at 2.1%. Producer prices were flat last month, with core prices retreating 0.2%; in the year ending in October, the headline Producer Price Index rose only 0.8% with the core PPI advancing 1.2%.3

 

BIG THREE SEE ANOTHER WEEK OF GAINS

Wall Street was still very bullish last week, and the Nasdaq Composite set the pace among the three major indices. The tech benchmark added 1.61% in five days to settle at 5,321.51 Friday. Smaller weekly gains came for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.11% to 18,867.93) and S&P 500 (0.81% to 2,181.90). WTI crude ended the week at $45.56 on the NYMEX; gold, at $1,208.50 on the COMEX.4

 

THIS WEEK: On Monday, Jack in the Box, Palo Alto Networks, Tyson Foods, and Weibo present earnings. October existing home sales figures are out Tuesday, along with earnings from Barnes & Noble, Burlington Stores, Campbell Soup, Chico’s FAS, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Dollar Tree, DSW, GameStop, Hormel Foods, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Kirkland’s, Medtronic, Urban Outfitters, and Valspar. Wednesday is filled with major reports: Wall Street looks at October new home sales and capital goods orders, initial jobless claims, the final November household sentiment index from the University of Michigan and the minutes from the November Federal Reserve policy meeting, along with Q3 results from Deere & Co. On Thursday, U.S. stock and bond markets are closed for Thanksgiving. Friday, Wall Street returns for a half-day of trading with no major earnings reports or news releases scheduled.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +8.28 +6.38 +11.99 +5.29
NASDAQ +6.27 +4.85 +21.37 +11.76
S&P 500 +6.75 +4.72 +15.90 +5.57
REAL YIELD 11/18 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.44% 0.71% 0.05% 2.33%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/18/164,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/story/yellen-says-fed-may-hike-interest-rates-relatively-soon-2016-11-17 [11/17/16]

2 – nasdaq.com/article/us-stocks-slip-as-investors-contemplate-future-fed-rate-hikes-cm711485 [11/18/16]

3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [11/18/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F18%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F18%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F18%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F17%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F17%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F17%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/18/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/18/16]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/18/16]
14 Nov 2016

Weekly Economic Update for November 14, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

BLUE CHIPS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS

Donald Trump’s unexpected presidential election win did not rattle Wall Street. Instead, bulls saw the prospect of greater federal outlays and less business regulation in the near future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record Friday: 18,847.66. The Dow 30 had its finest week since 2011, gaining 5.36%. As for the S&P 500, it advanced 3.80% in five days to 2,164.45. Settling at 5,237.11 Friday, the Nasdaq Composite rose 3.78% on the week.1,2

  

FED’s FISCHER: TIME FOR GRADUAL TIGHTENING

Stating that the central bank “appears reasonably close to achieving both inflation and employment components of its mandate,” Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer noted Friday that “the case for (raising interest rates) gradually is quite strong, keeping in mind that the future is uncertain and that monetary policy is not a preset course.” Some analysts believe sizable infrastructure spending under a Trump administration could spur inflation. On Friday, Fed fund futures contracts implied an 81% chance of a hike at the central bank’s December meeting.3

 

CONSUMER SENTIMENT ROSE BEFORE ELECTION

Displaying a reading of 91.6, the University of Michigan’s preliminary November household sentiment index climbed 4.4 points off its final October mark. Analysts polled by Bloomberg forecast an initial November reading of 87.9 for the gauge.4

 

CRUDE, GOLD PRICES DECLINE

As Wall Street rallied, key commodities had a tough week. Oil and gold were among them. The yellow metal settled at $1,227.40 an ounce on the COMEX Friday, leaving it down 3.75% at the end of this second week of the month. Oil ended the week at $43.12 a barrel on the NYMEX; it has sunk 7.78% so far in November.5

 

THIS WEEK: Advance Auto Parts and Smart & Final present Q3 results Monday. October retail sales numbers arrive Tuesday, plus earnings from Agilent Technologies, Aramark, Beazer Homes, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Diebold, and Home Depot. Wednesday, investors consider earnings from Cisco, L Brands, Lowe’s, NetApp, and Target, plus the October Producer Price Index. Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen testifies on the economic outlook in Congress, the October Consumer Price Index is released, October groundbreaking and building permit numbers are announced, and America’s Car-Mart, Applied Materials, Best Buy, Bon-Ton, Gap, Intuit, J.M. Smucker, Ross Stores, Spectrum Brands, Staples, Stein Mart, Walmart, and Williams-Sonoma offer earnings. Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker announce Q3 results Friday.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +8.16 +6.13 +11.69 +5.57
NASDAQ +4.59 +3.03 +19.90 +11.92
S&P 500 +5.90 +3.97 +14.92 +5.67
REAL YIELD 11/10 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.27% 0.77% -0.04% 2.25%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/11/162,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN13619K [11/11/16]

2 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/11/16]

3 – usatoday.com/story/money/2016/11/11/fischer-case-gradual-rate-hikes-quite-strong/93618568/ [11/11/16]

4 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-11/u-s-consumer-sentiment-hits-five-month-high-before-election [11/11/16]

5 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F10%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F10%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F10%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F10%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F10%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F10%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/11/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/11/16]

8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/11/16]
07 Nov 2016

Weekly Economic Update for November 7, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

NEW DATA SHOWS BRIGHTER JOBS PICTURE

Unemployment fell to 4.9% in October as firms added 161,000 net new workers, but that was just one positive from the Department of Labor’s latest summary of the U.S. employment situation. Year-over-year wage growth reached 2.8%, the best number seen since June 2009, as average hourly pay rose ten cents last month. The U-6 rate (underemployment + unemployment) fell 0.2% to 9.5%. In addition, hiring totals across August and September were revised higher by 44,000.1

  

CONSUMER SPENDING ROSE IN SEPTEMBER

The ninth month of 2016 saw gains of 0.5% in personal spending and 0.3% in personal incomes, the Commerce Department reported last week. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending advanced 0.3% for September, as opposed to retreating 0.2% in August.2

 

MORE EXPANSION AMONG SERVICE & FACTORY FIRMS

The Institute for Supply Management’s twin barometers of the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors were both comfortably above the 50-mark showing growth in October. ISM’s factory purchasing managers index came in at 51.9, up 0.4 points; its service sector PMI declined 2.3 points to 54.8.3

 

STOCKS PULL BACK

The Federal Reserve left interest rates alone last week, just as many analysts predicted – but investors were more concerned with the upcoming presidential election and earnings, and those anxieties certainly impeded the bulls. Across five days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.50% to 17,888.28; the S&P 500, 1.94% to 2,085.18; and the Nasdaq Composite, 2.77% to 5,046.37.1,4

 

THIS WEEK: Earnings from AMC Entertainment, Dean Foods, Hertz Global, Marriott International, MGM Resorts, Priceline, Rosetta Stone, and Scripps Networks arrive Monday. Tuesday is Election Day, with CVS Health, D.R. Horton, and TripAdvisor joining the fall earnings parade. Wednesday, Wall Street looks at earnings from AmeriGas, Clear Channel Outdoor, Coty, Energizer, Green Dot, Magellan Health, NetEase, Norwegian Cruise Line, Popeye’s, Viacom, and Wendy’s. A new initial claims report comes out Thursday, plus earnings from Kohl’s, Macy’s, Michael Kors, Nordstrom, Nvidia, Ralph Lauren, Sigma Labs, and Walt Disney Co. This Friday is Veterans Day: the stock market is open, the bond market is closed, November’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index appears, and J.C. Penney and Weibo release Q3 results.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +2.66 +0.12 +9.86 +4.92
NASDAQ +0.78 -1.87 +17.57 +11.65
S&P 500 +2.02 -0.81 +13.28 +5.28
REAL YIELD 11/4 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.11% 0.68% -0.06% 2.40%

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/4/164,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/hmn5mnb [11/4/16]

2 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN12V1BM [10/31/16]

3 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [11/3/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F4%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F4%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F4%2F15&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F4%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F4%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F4%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F3%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F3%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F3%2F06&x=0&y=0 [11/4/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/4/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/4/16]

01 Nov 2016

Monthly Economic Update for November, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
Bulls were reined in during October. The S&P 500 lost 1.94% as Wall Street responded unenthusiastically to the fall earnings season. Even though much of the economic news that emerged in October was good, investors saw an interest rate hike on the horizon and remained concerned about an increasingly controversial presidential race. Consumer confidence waned, but improved manufacturing, consumer spending, and retail sales numbers all factored into stronger growth. New and existing home sales accelerated. The price of oil rose, then quickly fell; the price of gold slipped, then recovered just a bit. Overseas, a timeline was set for the Brexit. In the big picture, appetite for risk waned as investors remained cautious.1

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
Economic indicators flashed clear signals that the economy was picking up. Household spending rose a healthy 0.5% during September, the most since June. Household incomes rose 0.3% in the ninth month of the year. Retail sales were up 0.6% for September, with core retail purchases rising 0.5%.2,3

 

Important twin gauges of business activity showed both manufacturing and service sector growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index jumped up to a reading of 57.1 in September, improving 5.7 points. ISM’s factory PMI also recovered from an August spent in contraction territory, rising 2.1 points to 51.5 in September; even more encouragingly, ISM’s new factory orders index increased by 6.0 points.3,4

 

Complementing all this, the federal government said that the economy grew 2.9% in the third quarter – a real upturn from the 1.4% GDP recorded for Q2.5

 

Had full employment been reached? Perhaps it was close at hand, since the hiring pace seemed to be moderating. The Department of Labor said that companies had added 156,000 net new jobs in September, while revising the August gain north to 167,000. The jobless rate rose slightly to 5.0%; the U-6 rate including the underemployed remained at 9.7%. Average hourly wages improved another 0.2%.3

 

Was inflation pressure mounting? Not really. The PCE price index advanced 0.2% in September, which left the core PCE index up 1.7% year-over-year, the same as in August. The Consumer Price Index showed a 1.5% annual gain in September, up from 1.1% a month earlier; core consumer prices were up 2.2% in 12 months, ticking down from 2.3% in August. Producer prices rose 0.3% in September, but that still left them up just 0.7% year-over-year.2,3

 

Some indicators did descend, most notably those measuring consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s monthly barometer dipped 4.9 points in October to a respectable 98.6 mark, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 87.2 at month’s end. Headline capital goods orders also declined 0.1% for September, with core orders down 1.2%.5

  

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
In London, United Kingdom prime minister Theresa May announced definite plans for the Brexit. The U.K. will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty no later than the end of March 2017. Assuming this occurs, the U.K. will leave the European Union in the summer of 2019. Until then, it intends to remain a player in all E.U. summits and member state negotiations. Speaking of the broader E.U., Eurostat reported economic growth of 0.3% for the euro area in Q3 and estimated annualized inflation for the euro area at 0.5% in October.6,7

The World Bank projected 6.7% growth for China in 2016, declining to 6.5% in 2017, and then 6.3% in 2018. It believes that the second-fastest growing economy in Asia this year will be that of the Philippines at 6.4%. Malaysia’s 2016 GDP is projected at 4.2%; Indonesia’s, at 4.8%. China aside, the Bank expects growth to pick up across Asia in the near future, projecting 4.8% growth for the rest of the region’s economies this year, 5% GDP in 2017, and 5.1% growth for 2018. Meanwhile, news arrived that Japan’s retail sales and industrial output were flat in September; retail sales were down for a seventh straight month and 1.9% lower over the past 12 months.8,9

 

WORLD MARKETS
Many foreign indices outperformed ours. To our respective north and south, the TSX Composite advanced 0.42% last month; the Bolsa, 1.62%. Argentina’s MERVAL rose 7.16%. European indices had a good month – there were gains of 1.47% for the DAX, 1.37% for the CAC-40, 4.81% for the IBEX 35, 0.59% for the Micex, and 0.80% for the FTSE 100. The FTSEurofirst 300 was an exception, losing 0.90%.10

 

The Nikkei 225 soared 5.93% during October to pace the major Asian indices. The Shanghai Composite was not that far behind, rising 3.22%. October also brought gains of 0.66% for India’s Sensex and 2.49% for the FTSE Taiwan 50. Australia’s All Ordinaries retreated 2.22%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 1.56%. The MSCI World index lost 2.01%, but the MCSI Emerging Market index rose 0.18%.10,11

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

As the Halloween trading day drew to a close on Wall Street, a look at the COMEX and NYMEX showed monthly losses for both gold and oil. The yellow metal slipped 3.27% for the month, settling at $1,276.70. Light sweet crude dropped to $46.76 at month’s end with oil investors still awaiting finalization of OPEC’s deal to restrain output; futures took a 2.68% fall for October.12

 

Reviewing the performance of other commodities last month, we see solid gains for some key crops. Coffee rose 9.25%; corn, 5.80%; cotton, 4.02%; soybeans, 5.30%; and wheat, 2.86%. Cocoa lost 0.90% in October; sugar, 2.09%. Among metals, silver slipped 7.09%; platinum fell 4.71%; and copper, 0.11%. Silver finished the month at $17.84. Unleaded gasoline futures lost 4.66% in October; heating oil futures, 1.62%. Natural gas futures gained 3.65%. The U.S. Dollar Index settled at 98.32, rising 3.03% in a month.1,12

 

REAL ESTATE
Aside from a drop in groundbreaking, the news out of this sector was decidedly upbeat. New home sales rose 3.1% in the ninth month of 2016, taking the 12-month advance to 29.8% and leaving the pace once again near a 9-year high. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors noted a 3.2% monthly advance for existing home sales.3,13

 

Home prices – as measured by the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller index – were up 5.3% year-over-year as of August, compared with 5.0% in the year ending in July. The Census Bureau said that building permits increased 6.3% for September; though, housing starts did retreat 9.0%. Pending home sales were up 1.5% for September according to NAR.3,5

 

Mortgages grew more expensive last month. By October 27, the mean interest rate for the 30-year FRM was at 3.47%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, while average rates on the 15-year FRM and the 5/1-year ARM respectively stood at 2.78% and 2.84%. Back on September 29, the mean rate on the 30-year loan averaged 3.42%; the average interest on the 15-year fixed was 2.72%; and the mean interest on the 5/1-year adjustable rate mortgage was 2.81%.14

 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
All three major U.S. equity indices lost ground in October. The blue chips retreated least – the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 0.90% for the month. Dropping 2.31%, the Nasdaq Composite exceeded the S&P 500’s 1.94% loss. The Russell 2000 stumbled 5.42%. Unsurprisingly, considering all this, the CBOE VIX soared 29.42% with uncertainty rising on Wall Street. The Halloween settlements: DJIA, 18,142.12; NASDAQ, 5,189.13; S&P, 2,126.15; RUT, 1,191.39; and VIX, 17.06. The VIX outgained all consequential U.S. indices last month by a wide margin; the PHLX Utility Index logged the biggest advance among the equity indices for October, rising 1.12%.1

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +4.12 +2.71 +10.35 +5.02
NASDAQ +3.63 +2.68 +18.66 +11.93
S&P 500 +4.02 +2.25 +13.93 +5.43
REAL YIELD 10/31 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.11% 0.63% 0.08% 2.34%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC
Sources: barchart.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/31/161,15,16,17

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

At this writing, it seems highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will authorize an interest rate hike at the start of November, as the Federal Open Market Committee has historically preferred to refrain from any policy decisions that could influence presidential elections. According to FactSet data, year-over-year earnings growth is apparent for the first time since Q1 2015 (blended Q3 earnings growth was at 1.6% through Halloween). Still, there is nothing resembling a bull run as we enter November. Hopefully, some risk appetite will return after the election, and investors will view solid economic indicators as validations of an improving economy, first, and as further evidence for a federal funds rate increase, second. Wall Street could see a lot of volatility this month, not merely reflective of the election. We can only hope the evident tension among institutional investors eases and the market surprises to the upside.18

 

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: After the Federal Reserve policy statement on November 2, the rest of the major items on the economic release slate arrives in this order: the ISM October non-manufacturing PMI; September factory orders and the October Challenger job-cut report (11/3); the Department of Labor’s October employment report (11/4); September consumer credit (11/7); the preliminary November consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (11/11); October retail sales (11/15); the October PPI and October industrial output (11/16); the October CPI and October housing starts and building permits (11/17); October existing home sales (11/22); the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, October new home sales, October capital goods orders, and the minutes from the November Federal Reserve policy meeting (11/24); the newest consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, the September S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and the second estimate of Q3 growth (11/29); and then the November ADP payrolls report, a new Federal Reserve Beige Book, and October PCE prices, consumer spending, and pending home sales (11/30).


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – barchart.com/stocks/indices.php?view=performance [10/31/16]

2 – marketwatch.com/story/consumer-spending-accelerates-in-september-2016-10-31/ [10/31/16]

3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [10/31/16]

4 – news.forexlive.com/!/september-2016-us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-date-report-20161003 [10/3/16]

5 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [10/31/16]

6 – bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37710786 [10/22/16]

7 – ec.europa.eu/eurostat [10/31/16]

8 – ibtimes.sg/china-growth-moderate-east-asia-pacific-resilient-world-bank-3722 [10/5/16]

9 – reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-output-idUSKBN12V02A [10/29/16]

10 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [10/31/16]

11 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [10/31/16]

12 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [10/31/16]

13 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/10/26/september-new-home-sales-rise-3-1.html [10/26/16]

14 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016l [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

15 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/31/16]

16 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/31/16]

17 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/31/16]

18 – marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-braces-for-political-jitters-as-fed-likely-to-stand-pat-2016-10-29 [10/29/16]

31 Oct 2016

Weekly Economic Update for October 31, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

ECONOMY EXPANDS 2.9% in THIRD QUARTER

After just 1.4% growth in Q2, this was welcome news. Surging exports and greater inventory investment and federal spending made Q3 the best quarter for the economy in two years, according to the Department of Commerce. The federal government’s core PCE price index was up 1.7% for the quarter versus 1.8% in Q2.1

  

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES DESCEND

Last week, the Conference Board’s gauge of household confidence came in at 98.6 for October, down from 103.5 in September. The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment index slipped to 87.2 from its prior mark of 87.9.2

 

PENDING HOME SALES ReBOUND

The National Association of Realtors noted a 1.5% gain in housing contract activity in September, following a 2.5% downturn in August. The August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index revealed a 5.3% annual rise in U.S. home values.2

 

BLUE CHIPS FARE BEST DURING A MIXED WEEK

Across five trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09% to settle at 18,161.19 Friday. Weekly losses struck the S&P 500 (0.69% to 2,126.41) and Nasdaq Composite (1.28% to 5,190.10).3

 

THIS WEEK: September consumer spending figures are out on Monday, along with earnings from Aegion, Anadarko Petroleum, Loews, Nautilus, and Tesoro. Tuesday, ISM releases its October factory PMI and Archer Daniels Midland, Coach, Cummins, Electronic Arts, Gilead Sciences, Kellogg, Molson Coors, Mosaic, Noble Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Papa John’s, Pfizer, Square, U.S. Steel, Western Union, and Wingstop announce earnings. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve makes its latest policy statement, ISM’s service sector PMI appears, ADP issues its September payrolls report, and earnings news arrives from Allergan, Allstate, AIG, Anthem, Avis Budget, Clorox, Estee Lauder, Facebook, GoDaddy, iHeartMedia, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Office Depot, Prudential, Red Robin, Sunoco, Take-Two Interactive, Time Warner, Transocean, Whole Foods, Yelp, and Zynga. The October Challenger job-cut report and the latest initial claims figures come out Thursday, and Alamo Group, AMC Networks, Avon, Chesapeake Energy, Cigna, Fluor, GoPro, Hyatt Hotels, Icahn Enterprises, Kemper, Kraft Heinz, Lions Gate, Monster Beverage, Noble Corp., Starbucks, and TiVo all join the earnings parade. Friday, the Department of Labor provides its October jobs report, and Duke Energy, Humana, Jamba, and Revlon present earnings.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +4.22 +2.15 +9.70 +5.02
NASDAQ +3.65 +1.85 +17.92 +12.08
S&P 500 +4.03 +1.73 +13.09 +5.44
REAL YIELD 10/28 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.13% 0.63% 0.19% 2.37%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/28/163,4,5,6

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – investors.com/news/economy/economy-grew-2-9-in-q3-faster-than-expected/ [10/28/16]

2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [10/28/16]

3 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F28%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F28%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F28%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F28%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F28%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F28%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/28/16]

5 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/28/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/28/16]

24 Oct 2016

Weekly Economic Update for October 24, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News

YEARLY INFLATION INCREASES

Consumer prices rose 1.5% in the 12 months ending in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced last week. That is the highest annualized inflation rate seen since October 2014, up from 1.1% in the year ending in August. The headline Consumer Price Index advanced 0.3% last month; the core CPI 0.1%.1

  

EXISTING HOME SALES REBOUND

September saw a 3.2% gain in resales – the first improvement since June, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers made up 34% of home purchasers, a 4-year peak. Separately, the Census Bureau reported a 9.0% plunge for groundbreaking in September, but building permits increased by 6.3%.2,3

 

OIL PRICES KEEP RISING; STOCKS MAKE MINOR GAINS

Settling Friday at $50.85, light sweet crude added 1.0% for the week. Crude now has a 5-week winning streak going on the NYMEX. All three major indices advanced during the past five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 2,141.16; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.83% to 5,257.40; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.04% to 18,145.71.4,5

 

THIS WEEK: Boise Cascade, Kimberly-Clark, Sonic, T-Mobile, and Visa present earnings Monday. Tuesday offers the October Conference Board consumer confidence index, the August Case-Shiller home price index and earnings reports from 3M, Apple, AT&T, Capital One, Caterpillar, Chipotle, Chubb, Eli Lilly, Express Scripts, JetBlue, Freeport-McMoRan, General Motors, Lexmark, Merck, NCR, Pandora, Panera, Peabody Energy, Procter & Gamble, Sherwin-Williams, Sprint, Under Armour, Unisys, and Valero Energy. September new home sales numbers are out Wednesday, plus earnings from Allegiant Air, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Boeing, Cheesecake Factory, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Garmin, Hilton Worldwide, Ingersoll-Rand, La Quinta Holdings, Netgear, Newmont Mining, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, O’Reilly, Penske, Public Storage, Southwest Airlines, State Street, Tesla, Universal Health Services, W.R. Grace, Waste Management, and Western Digital. Besides a new initial claims report and September pending home sales data, Thursday offers earnings from Aetna, Aflac, Alphabet, Altria, Amazon.com, Amgen, Baidu, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Cabela’s, Colgate-Palmolive, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, Expedia, Ford Motor Co., Genworth Financial, Hanesbrands, Ingram Micro, LinkedIn, Marathon Petroleum, Nokia, Praxair, Sirius XM, Twitter, and Virgin America. On Friday, the initial Q3 GDP estimate and the final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrive, plus earnings from AutoNation, Chevron, Exelon, Exxon Mobil, Hershey, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser, and Xerox.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +4.14 +5.69 +10.73 +5.12
NASDAQ +4.99 +8.62 +19.87 +12.45
S&P 500 +4.76 +6.05 +14.58 +5.64
REAL YIELD 10/21 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.07% 0.59% 0.23% 2.49%

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/21/165,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi [10/21/16]

2 – consumeraffairs.com/news/sales-of-existing-homes-rebound-in-september-102016.html [10/20/16]

3 – cnbc.com/2016/10/19/us-housing-starts-sept-2016.html [10/19/16]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-gain-1-for-the-week-2016-10-21 [10/21/16]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F21%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F21%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F21%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/21/16]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/21/16]

18 Oct 2016

Quarterly Economic Update for Q3, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News
Quarterly Economic Update for Q3, 2016

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

THE QUARTER IN BRIEF
The economy seemed to hit a soft patch this summer, but stocks carried onward and upward – the S&P 500 advanced for a fourth straight quarter in Q3, rising 3.31%. Markets were notably placid for much of the quarter, even with two major banking scandals, multiple terror attacks, and the latest dispatches from an especially contentious presidential race in the headlines. As Q3 went on, the Federal Reserve all but signaled to investors to expect a rate hike before the end of the year. Home sales, residential construction, factory activity, and consumer spending seemed to wane in the quarter, but consumers grew more confident.1

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
As Wall Street mulled over the chances of a fall interest rate increase, some economic indicators pointed to a summer slowdown. In August, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index went under 50 (49.4), meaning the sector had contracted for the month. Both industrial and manufacturing production declined 0.4%. Durable goods orders, up 3.6% for July, were suddenly flat. Retail sales fell off by 0.3%, and personal spending was flat after an 0.4% gain in July (personal incomes did manage to rise another 0.2%).2,3

 

The pace of hiring also moderated in August, though July’s number was revised upward in September. Employers added 275,000 new jobs in July, 151,000 for August. The headline jobless rate (4.9%), the U-6 rate counting the underemployed and the unemployed (9.7%), and the labor force participation rate (62.8%) were exactly the same in both months.4

 

Other indicators were less dismal. As September ended, the federal government said the economy grew at a 1.4% pace in Q2 – not very good, but better than the 1.1% growth previously estimated. Additionally, ISM’s service sector PMI remained above 50 in August at 51.4 (though that number was decidedly lower than the 55.5 mark from July).3,5

 

Accentuating the positive, consumers grew more upbeat as the quarter went on. In July, the Conference Board announced a reading of 97.3 for its consumer confidence index; in August, the CB said the gauge was at 101.1, and in September it reached 104.1. Across the quarter, the University of Michigan’s monthly measure of household sentiment rose slightly from 90.0 in July to 91.2 for September (including a dip to 89.8 for August).6,7

 

Consumer inflation picked up, but wholesale inflation did not. By August, the Consumer Price Index had advanced 1.1% in a year, as opposed to 0.8% in the 12 months ending in July. Core consumer prices were up 2.3% year-over-year by August. In annualized terms, the Producer Price Index showed no change from a year earlier in August; in monthly terms, the PPI fell 0.4% in July and was flat a month later. Core inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.1% in July, 0.2% in August.2,3

 

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, it left interest rates alone during Q3. It did, however, clue Wall Street in on the probability of a Q4 rate hike: its latest dot-plot forecast showed consensus for one, and the vote against raising the federal funds rate at its September policy meeting was close (7-3). After the vote was announced, Fed chair Janet Yellen remarked that FOMC members were “generally pleased with how the U.S. economy is doing” – a notably sunny viewpoint. On September 29, she made further headlines by commenting how useful it would be if the Fed could buy securities and corporate bonds to stimulate the economy in a recession (something it is currently prohibited from doing).8,9

Wells Fargo certainly made headlines in Q3. In September, its CEO was brought before Congress after news broke that employees had opened as many as 2 million fake accounts in pursuit of sales goals. The bank was contending with $190 million in fines and severe damage to its reputation when the quarter ended.10

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Trouble at another, even larger banking giant emerged during Q3. Deutsche Bank looked increasingly shaky after failing the U.S. government’s bank stress test early this summer and barely passing the equivalent test in the European Union. S&P Global Ratings lowered its outlook for DB to negative. By the end of the quarter, CNBC and AFP were reporting that DB was trying to negotiate $14 billion in fines it owed to the Department of Justice down to the $5 billion level; indications were that the German government had no intention to bail the bank out should its situation worsen.1,11

 

Economic indicators pointed at a less stagnant E.U. economy during the summer after the Brexit. Eurostat projected 0.4% consumer inflation in September, rising from 0.2% in August; the euro area jobless rate stayed at 10.1% in both July and August, the lowest level observed since July 2011.12

 

In September, OPEC nations agreed to reduce oil production for the first time since 2008. The agreement, to be finalized in fall, would essentially restore the production limits that were in place back in 2015. Previously, Saudi Arabia had held out on such an agreement, saying it would cut production only if all other OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing nations vowed to do so.13

 

WORLD MARKETS
Benchmarks generally climbed higher in the third quarter, affirming that 2016 has turned into a good year for stocks. By the end of Q3, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 13.82% year-over-year, and Germany’s DAX had seen an 8.80% 12-month advance. Other impressive year-over-year gains: 20.39% for Russia’s Micex, 11.76% for the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, 28.81% for Brazil’s Bovespa, 14.07% for the MSCI Emerging Markets index, and 10.66% for the TSX Composite in Canada. The MSCI World index had risen 9.09% in 12 months; India’s Sensex, 6.54%.14,15

 

The past four quarters had not been so kind to some other indices. As the third quarter ended, Italy’s FTSE All-Share had lost 21.06% in a year; Spain’s IBEX 35, 8.16%; France’s CAC-40, just 0.16%; China’s Shanghai Composite, 1.55%; and Japan’s Nikkei 225, 5.40%.14

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS
Precious metals remained on track to log an impressive 2016 comeback. Gold lost just 0.3% in the quarter, which still left it up 24.2% YTD. The yellow metal closed the quarter at $1,317.10 on the COMEX. Silver wrapped up September at $19.21, rising 3.2% in the quarter and gaining 39.2% through three-fourths of 2016. Platinum advanced 1.0% in Q3; palladium, 20.8%. That brought their respective YTD gains to 15.8% and 28.4%.16

 

Looking at the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the best Q3 performers were two base metals – zinc rose 12.6% in the quarter; nickel, 11.5%. Sugar advanced 9.8%; cotton, 5.3%; and soybean oil, 4.6%. The worst performers? Lean hogs lost 31.6%; soy meal, 25.1%; soybeans, 17.1%; and wheat, 14.0%. The U.S. Dollar Index retreated but 0.57% for the quarter, finishing Q3 at 95.42.17,18

 

Like gold, WTI crude was nearly flat for the quarter. Futures lost just 0.2% in Q3, finishing September at a NYMEX price of $48.24. Heating oil rose 2.9% in Q3, while unleaded gasoline retreated 0.9%.1,19

 

REAL ESTATE
Home sales and housing starts tapered off during the quarter. Existing home sales slipped 3.4% in July and another 0.9% in August as inventory slimmed; the National Association of Realtors also said pending home sales were up 1.2% in July, but down 2.4% a month later. In July, the Census Bureau announced that new home sales were up a whopping 13.8% and near an all-time peak, but then they fell 7.6% in August. Housing starts were up 1.4% for July; building permits, down 0.8%. In August, permits were down another 0.4%, with groundbreaking reduced by 5.8%. The year-over-year advance in the monthly editions of the 20-city Case-Shiller home price index kept shrinking – it was 5.1% in June, 5.0% in July.2,3

 

Home loans, broadly speaking, grew slightly less expensive across Q3. The September 29 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey specified the following average interest on the three common mortgage types: 30-year FRM, 3.42%; 15-year FRM, 2.72%; 5/1-year ARM, 2.81%. Compare those numbers with these from the June 30 PMMS: 30-year FRM, 3.48%; 15-year FRM, 2.78%; 5/1-year ARM, 2.70%.20

 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
Tech shares and small caps set the pace in the third quarter – the Nasdaq Composite leapt 9.69%, while the Russell 2000 posted a 3-month gain of 8.20%.1,21

 

The Dow ended the quarter at 18,308.15; the NASDAQ, at 5,312.00; the S&P 500, at 2,168.27; and the RUT, at 1,251.64. The RUT’s YTD mark at the end of Q3 (+10.19%) surpassed the YTD performances of the big three.22

 

Concluding the quarter at 13.29, the CBOE VIX retreated swiftly this summer. Its Q3 loss was 10.02%, leaving the “fear index” down 27.02% YTD.23

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D Q3 CHG 1-YR CHG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +5.07 +2.11 +12.43 +5.68
NASDAQ +6.08 +9.69 +14.97 +13.52
S&P 500 +6.08 +3.31 +12.93 +6.23
REAL YIELD 9/30 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.00% 0.65% 0.17% 2.27%

 


Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/30/161,22,24,25

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

This is the time of year when bulls yearn for an extended rally. Will they get it? Will S&P 500 earnings surpass (low) expectations? Will the market confidently ride through the election, whatever the outcome? Will it simply and calmly price in a rate hike, assuming that happens? Will investors shrug off any unsettling headlines, whether from home or from overseas? If the market can answer “yes” to those last four questions, the quarter could see impressive gains for the major indices. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence research, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 5% in the fourth quarter since 1990, and advanced in the fourth quarter more than 70% of the time since 1945. The past has little or no influence upon future market behaviors, but even with continued slow economic growth, the overall market mood is still bullish – so perhaps investors will look at earnings first this quarter, then other factors. It is sure to be an eventful and possibly turbulent three months.26

«RepresentativeDisclosure»

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The MICEX Index is a cap-weighted composite index calculated based on prices of the 50 most liquid Russian stocks of the largest and dynamically developing Russian issuers presented on the Moscow Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986. The FTSE Italia All-Share Index is a free float capitalization weighted index that comprises all of the constituents in the FTSE MIB, FTSE Italia Mid Cap and FTSE Italia Small Cap indices. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain's principal stock exchange. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2016/09/30/us-markets.html [9/30/16]

2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/30/16]

3 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/30/16]

4 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/09/02/tepid-august-jobs-report-lack-wage-growth-muddies-rate-hike-picture.html [9/2/16]

5 – tinyurl.com/zho9nnp [9/6/16]

6 – investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48 [10/3/16]

7 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence [10/3/16]

8 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-federal-reserve-meeting-20160921-snap-story.html [9/21/16]

9 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-purchases-idUSKCN11Z2WI [9/29/16]

10 – reuters.com/article/us-wells-fargo-accounts-idUSKCN11X2NW [9/28/16]

11 – cnbc.com/2016/09/28/deutsche-bank-crisis-explained.html [9/28/16]

12 – ec.europa.eu/eurostat# [10/4/16]

13 – reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN11Y18K [9/29/16]

14 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [9/30/16]

15 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [9/30/16]

16 – coinnews.net/2016/10/01/gold-silver-mixed-in-3rd-quarter-us-mint-coin-sales-strengthen/ [10/1/16]

17 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-02/too-many-fat-pigs-are-making-hogs-the-biggest-commodities-loser [10/2/16]

18 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [10/3/16]

19 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-continue-to-fall-as-doubts-over-opec-agreement-build-2016-09-30/ [9/30/16]

20 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016 [10/3/16]

21 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/ [9/30/16]

22 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/30/16]

23 – money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=VIX [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

25 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/3/16]

26 – cbsnews.com/news/time-to-make-some-fourth-quarter-investing-bets/ [9/30/16]

18 Oct 2016

Monthly Economic Update for October, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News
Monthly Economic Update for October, 2016

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
Investors had plenty of news to absorb in September: the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve, the Wells Fargo fiasco and the crisis involving Deutsche Bank, and a major deal forged between OPEC member nations. Add in the presidential race and a raft of economic data, and you had all the ingredients for market turbulence. Wall Street saw much of that last month. Yet, at the close on September 30, the S&P 500 was little changed from the end of August – the index was just 0.12% lower. The latest housing indicators showed fewer home sales and less groundbreaking; hiring tapered off, and news came that the manufacturing sector had abruptly contracted. Even so, consumer confidence strengthened.1

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
Would the Federal Reserve raise the key interest rate in September? As it turned out, no. The Fed elected to postpone a rate hike, a decision in line with market expectations. The 7-3 vote was, however, unusually close, and the latest Fed dot-plot indicated consensus for a rate increase before the end of the year. At the press conference following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement, Fed chair Janet Yellen noted that the FOMC is “generally pleased with how [the] economy is doing.”2

 

Main Street seemed to share that feeling as well. Both of the key consumer confidence polls ended September higher. The University of Michigan index went from 89.8 at the end of August to a final September mark of 91.2, while the Conference Board’s gauge went north 3.0 points to a very strong reading of 104.1.3,4

 

These numbers may hint at stronger personal spending. The Department of Commerce’s September report on that subject will arrive late this month; the August data left something to be desired. Personal spending was flat in the eighth month of the year even as personal incomes rose 0.2%. August retail sales fell 0.3%, with the retreat at 0.1% minus gasoline and auto purchases. August brought a 0.2% advance for the Consumer Price Index, with core prices rising 0.3%; in annualized terms, America had experienced 2.3% core consumer inflation in the past 12 months.3,4

 

The August jobs report from the Department of Labor looked pretty mediocre: the net job gain was 151,000. As unimpressive as this was, the 3-month moving average for job growth was much better at 232,000. Year-over-year wage growth came in at 2.4% in August, as opposed to 2.7% a month earlier. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9%; the U-6 rate including the underemployed stayed at 9.7%.5

 

In late September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis closed the book on Q3 GDP. The final number (which actually could still be revised years from now): 1.4%.3

 

At the start of September, an Institute for Supply Management report showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector had suddenly contracted. ISM’s factory purchasing manager index came in at just 49.4 in August, a startling drop from the 52.6 mark recorded for July. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI also plunged: the service sector grew in August at its slowest pace in more than six years as the index slipped from 55.5 to 51.4. Wholesale prices – as measured by the Producer Price Index – were not only flat for August, but flat year-over-year. Headline hard goods orders were also unchanged in August.4,6

 

A long-brewing scandal at one of the nation’s major financial institutions came to a head. Wells Fargo agreed to pay $190 million in fines to regulators as punishment for its employees creating as many as 2 million phony credit card and deposit accounts. The bank announced it would pare its payrolls of 5,300 workers as a result of the scandal, which was linked to employees trying to meet sales goals. Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf was summoned to the nation’s capital for a grilling before the House Financial Services Committee and faced public pressure to resign.7

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Wells Fargo wasn’t the only financial giant in hot water in September: some investors wondered if Deutsche Bank was at risk of becoming the next Lehman Brothers. This summer, its U.S. unit failed the Federal Reserve’s banking stress test (again), and barely passed a similar test in Europe; S&P Global Ratings changed its outlook for Deutsche Bank to negative. In June, the International Monetary Fund identified it as “the most important net contributor to systemic risks in the global banking system.” Meanwhile, the bank is scheduled to pay out $14 billion in fines to the Department of Justice for misconduct (Fitch thinks the figure could eventually be reduced to the vicinity of $5 billion). As CNBC notes, reports have surfaced that Germany’s government is not willing to bail out Deutsche Bank in a worst-case scenario.8

 

For the first time since 2008, OPEC member countries agreed to cut oil production. The deal was announced September 29, and the news immediately took the price of WTI crude above the $48 level. The pact ended a long stalemate between Iran and Saudi Arabia that had held up prior attempts to curb output. This accord will essentially put the OPEC daily production limits of a year ago back in place, and it could be extended in November to include non-member nations such as Russia.9

 

WORLD MARKETS
As many global benchmarks seemed to advance as retreat in September. Argentina’s ever-turbulent MERVAL index took the biggest leap up, gaining 5.94%. Smaller gains came for the Hang Seng (1.22%), the FTSE 100 (1.15%), the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (1.09%), the IBEX 35 (1.08%), the MSCI World Index (0.36%), the TSX Composite (0.28%), the Bovespa (0.22%), and the KOSPI (0.19%).10,11

 

Some September losses were major. The Shanghai Composite drifted down 2.25%; the Sensex, 1.68%; and the Nikkei 225, 1.65%. The DAX fell 1.38% on the month. Other key indices kept their losses under 1%, such as Australia’s All Ordinaries (0.87%), Mexico’s Bolsa (0.67%), and France’s CAC-40 (0.21%).10

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Overall, September was a very positive month for commodity futures. Gold settled at $1,318.80 on the COMEX on September 30; silver, at $19.24. Gold rose 0.70% for the month; silver, 2.87%. Copper futures jumped 6.40%, but platinum futures sank 2.76%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.59%.12,13

 

Among energy futures, heating oil jumped 8.71% as fall approached; natural gas rose 0.80%. Oil ended September at $48.05 on the NYMEX, up 7.11% for the month; unleaded gasoline advanced 3.04%. As for crops, corn gained 11.03%; wheat, 10.82%; and sugar, 12.15%. Coffee advanced 4.31% in September; cotton, 4.23%. Cocoa futures fell 4.83%, and soybean futures gave back 0.42%.12

 

REAL ESTATE
Slim inventory weighed on home sales. The National Association of Realtors said that resales retreated 0.9% for August, and there was also a 2.4% dip in pending sales. New home buying, according to the Census Bureau, fell 7.6% a month after reaching a peak unseen since October 2007 in July.3,14

 

Housing starts and building permits both declined in August – the former indicator was down 5.8%; the latter, 0.4%. The latest Case-Shiller home price index also retreated a bit; the July edition showed a 5.0% overall annual advance in the 20-city composite index, down from 5.1% in June.3,4

 

Many economists foresee an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before 2016 ends, but that presumption did not pressure mortgage rates in September. Eyeing Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Surveys, the average interest rate for the 30-year FRM was 3.46% on September 1, and 3.42% on September 29. Average interest on the 15-year FRM declined from 2.77% to 2.72% in that span; rates for 5/1-year ARMs averaged 2.83% on September 1 and 2.81% on September 29.15

 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
The Nasdaq Composite had a fine September, rising 1.70% to finish the month at 5,312.00. Like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went red in September, losing 0.79%. The S&P ended the month at 2,168.27 thanks to its 0.12% loss; the Dow, at 18,308.15. While this is shaping up to be a decent year for all three of those benchmarks, their performance so far pales next to that of the PHLX Gold/Silver Index, which closed September up at a phenomenal 107.53% YTD.1,16

 

In addition to the YTD numbers for the big three below, there are two others certainly worth noting – the Russell 2000 ended September at +10.19% on the year; the CBOE VIX, at -27.02%.16

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +5.07 +12.43 +13.55 +5.68
NASDAQ +6.08 +14.97 +23.98 +13.52
S&P 500 +6.08 +12.93 +18.33 +6.23
REAL YIELD 9/30 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.00% 0.65% 0.17% 2.27%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/30/1616,17,18,19

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 


 

October shapes up as a busy month with another earnings season getting underway, and investors awaiting both the presidential election and an FOMC meeting in early November. In short, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the air, perhaps enough to hold stocks back in the next few weeks. Could this earnings season surpass expectations? Analysts certainly aren’t expecting much. (For that matter, FactSet data has S&P 500 earnings down an average of 2.1% so far for Q3; Q3 would mark the sixth straight quarter with a year-over-year earnings decline.) Even so, October may surprise us: for all the stock market dramas associated, historically, with the month, the fact is that the S&P 500 has performed better in October than in any other month over the past 20 years. Its average October gain in that time frame: 2.1%. History does not easily repeat, but bulls can draw some encouragement from that statistic as October unfolds.20

 

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: The roll call for the balance of October is as follows: the ISM service sector PMI, ADP’s September employment change report and August factory orders (10/5), the September Challenger job-cut numbers (10/6), the September jobs report from the Department of Labor (10/7), the minutes from September’s FOMC meeting (10/12), the September PPI, September retail sales and the preliminary October consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (10/14), September industrial output (10/17), the September CPI (10/18), September housing starts and building permits and a new Federal Reserve Beige Book (10/19), September existing home sales (10/20), the August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and a fresh consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (10/25), September new home sales (10/26), September capital goods orders and pending home sales (10/27), the initial estimate of Q3 GDP and the month’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (10/28), and then the September consumer spending report and September PCE prices (10/31). The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for November 2.

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain's principal stock exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The All Ordinaries (XAO) is considered a total market barometer for the Australian stock market and contains the 500 largest ASX-listed companies by way of market capitalization. The Mexican Stock Exchange commonly known as Mexican Bolsa, Mexbol, or BMV, is the only stock exchange in Mexico. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of companies involved in the gold or silver mining industry. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [9/30/16]

2 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-federal-reserve-meeting-20160921-snap-story.html [9/21/16]

3 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/30/16]

4 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/30/16]

5 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/09/02/tepid-august-jobs-report-lack-wage-growth-muddies-rate-hike-picture.html [9/2/16]

6 – tinyurl.com/zho9nnp [9/6/16]

7 – reuters.com/article/us-wells-fargo-accounts-idUSKCN11X2NW [9/28/16]

8 – cnbc.com/2016/09/28/deutsche-bank-crisis-explained.html [9/28/16]

9 – reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN11Y18K [9/29/16]

10 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [9/30/16]

11 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [9/30/16]

12 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [9/30/16]

13 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [10/2/16]

14 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-new-home-sales-20160926-snap-story.html [9/26/16]

15 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016l [10/2/16]

16 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

17 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F29%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/30/16]

18 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/30/16]

19 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/30/16]

20 – marketwatch.com/story/volatile-mix-of-data-politics-and-bank-woes-to-converge-in-stock-market-2016-10-01/ [10/1/16]

17 Oct 2016

Weekly Economic Update for October 17, 2016

by Benning Financial Group | in Economic Update, News
Weekly Economic Update for October 17, 2016

Randy C. Benning, CFP Presents:

RETAIL SALES JUMP 0.6%

This September gain was impressive – minus auto sales, the advance was still 0.5%. In August, both headline and core retail sales fell 0.2%. While consumers bought more last month, they were less confident earlier this month – the University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment index fell 3.3 points to 87.9.1

  

INTEREST RATES MAY SOON RISE

The minutes from September’s Federal Reserve policy meeting affirmed what some investors suspected. One, last month’s decision not to raise the federal funds rate was a “close call.” Two, the Federal Open Market Committee expects to make a move “relatively soon.” Last month, 74% of economists responding to a Wall Street Journal survey thought the central bank would raise rates in December.2

 

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX UP 0.3%

A 2.5% advance in energy prices became the biggest factor in September’s PPI gain. The headline PPI rose 0.7% in the 12 months ending in September.3

 

STOCKS PULL BACK AS EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS

During five choppy trading days last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.56% to 18,138.38; the S&P 500, 0.96% to 2,132.98; and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.48% to 5,214.16. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at 16.00 Friday, up 18.69% for the week.4

THIS WEEK: Monday, Wall Street looks at earnings from Bank of America, Celanese, Del Taco, Hasbro, IBM, J.B. Hunt, Lennox International, and Netflix, plus numbers on September industrial output. On Tuesday, BlackRock, Domino’s Pizza, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Philip Morris, Yahoo!, Regions Financial, UnitedHealth, and W.W. Grainger join the earnings parade, and the September CPI arrives. Abbott Labs, American Express, BB&T, Citrix, eBay, Mattel, Halliburton, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust, Seagate, St. Jude Medical, SuperValu, U.S. Bancorp, and United Rentals all report earnings Wednesday; investors will also consider September data on housing starts and building permits, and a new Federal Reserve Beige Book. Thursday offers earnings from Alaska Air, American Airlines, BoNY Mellon, Dunkin’ Brands, E*TRADE, Fifth Third, IMAX, Invacare, Microsoft, Nucor, PayPal, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Schlumberger, Union Pacific, Verizon, and Walgreens Boots Alliance; reports on initial jobless claims and September existing home sales also appear. Friday, the key earnings reports come from General Electric, Honeywell International, McDonalds, Parker Hannifin, SunTrust, and Whirlpool.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +4.09 +7.17 +11.15 +5.17
NASDAQ +4.13 +9.02 +19.09 +12.12
S&P 500 +4.36 +6.96 +14.84 +5.62
REAL YIELD 10/14 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.13% 0.50% 0.28% 2.47%

 

Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor, Benning Financial Group, LLC, is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Securities offered through Triad Advisors Member FINRA, SIPC

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/14/164,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [10/14/16]

2 – tinyurl.com/hhanz42 [10/12/16]

3 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/10/14/september-producer-prices-rise-more-than-expected.html [10/14/16]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/14/16]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/14/16]

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    Randy Benning is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) at Benning Financial Group, LLC, located in Fairfield, California. His firm focuses on investment management, financial, retirement, and estate planning. Randy has been a Financial Planner in the Bay Area for over 25 years. He is also a member of the San Francisco Estate Planning Council.

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    Randy C. Benning, CFP®, President, License # 0816882, Benning Financial Group, LLC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Benning Financial Group, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor.


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